Guoxin Securities·2025-04-09 02:05Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump includes a 10% baseline tariff on all countries starting April 5, with higher tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, such as 34% for China, 46% for Vietnam, and 32% for Indonesia [2][10] - The impact of the reciprocal tariff policy suggests that the majority of the tariff costs will be borne by US consumers, as manufacturers and brands have historically not shared tariff costs with suppliers [2][20] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in high-quality textile manufacturing companies that are less sensitive to tariff impacts, particularly those with low US revenue contributions and high net profit margins [3][23] Summary by Sections 1. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Policy Overview - The policy includes differentiated tariffs based on trade deficits, with specific rates for various countries, including a cumulative tariff of 54% for China [2][10] 2. Trade Impact Hypothesis - The majority of tariff costs will be passed to consumers, with a hypothetical scenario suggesting a 10% price increase for end consumers due to tariffs [2][20] - The report emphasizes that the likelihood of low-value, labor-intensive industries returning to the US is low due to significantly higher labor costs compared to Southeast Asia [22] 3. "Wrong Killing" Stock Selection Logic - Companies with low US revenue contributions (below 20%) and high net profit margins are less sensitive to tariff impacts, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [3][25] - The report highlights that companies with strong pricing power and those experiencing supply-demand imbalances are better positioned to navigate the tariff environment [3][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and other quality textile manufacturing firms that have seen stock price declines of 15% to 25% since the tariff announcement, presenting potential buying opportunities [3][26] - The report suggests that the impact of tariffs on these companies will be limited, and they may benefit from market share expansion in the aftermath of industry consolidation [3][26]