镍与不锈钢日评：偏弱运行-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be weak. The refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and there are many macro - negative factors, which will suppress the nickel price. The frequent adjustment of Indonesia's nickel industry policy and the withdrawal of long - position funds also increase market volatility [1]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak. The supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material support for stainless - steel prices is limited. Under macro - negative factors, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are under heavy pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - Market Data: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the futures near - month contract was 119,280 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 261,743 hands (+457), and the open interest was 80,225 hands (-4,462). The LME 3 - month nickel closing price (electronic disk) was 14,150 US dollars/ton, down 214 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the closing price of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 2,470 yuan, down 1,490 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Supply - side Situation: - Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports changed little, and port inventories were stable. In some major production areas in Indonesia, production was adjusted, with reduced production scheduling and a downward - adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to make losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - Demand - side Situation: - Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production scheduling was stable and improving, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - Inventory Situation: - On April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,300 tons, up 1,908 tons from the previous day, with an increase rate of 0.95%. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed a downward trend. The trading volume of the active contract was 187,931 hands (-23,316), and the open interest was 72,550 hands (-14,393). The basis between the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) and the active contract decreased by 40 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Supply - side Situation: - Stainless - steel production scheduling decreased slightly [1]. - Demand - side Situation: - Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. - Cost - side Situation: - The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - Inventory Situation: - The SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons, down 6,300 tons [1].