申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250409

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins traded in a consolidative manner. Due to the US tariff hikes and increased crude oil supply, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, exerting pressure on polyolefins at the opening. For polyolefins in the refining and chemical segment, the increase in OPEC supply suppresses oil prices, which helps repair the production profit of oil - based products. However, the tariff hikes increase the cost of PDH - process PP and are unfavorable for global commodity terminal demand, directly affecting the demand for chemical products. In the short term, the market will inevitably be impacted. Besides monitoring cost - side fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the demand side in the dual - circulation economy, and whether the domestic economy can continue to grow in the second quarter to offset the negative impact of US tariff hikes on demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - LL Futures: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7205, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7236, a decline of 31, and a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume was 2517, the open interest was 9238, and the change in open interest was 472. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 121 (previous value - 84), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 101 (previous value 59), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 20 (previous value 25) [2]. - PP Futures: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7081, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7118, a decline of 37, and a decline rate of 0.52%. The trading volume was 2450, the open interest was 3231, and the change in open interest was 1392. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 119 (previous value - 79), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 71 (previous value 45), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 48 (previous value 34) [2]. Spot Market Data - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current price of methanol futures is 2372 yuan/ton (previous value 2380 yuan/ton), the price of Shandong propylene is 6650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of South China propane is 616 dollars/ton (previous value 577 dollars/ton), the price of PP recycled materials is 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of North China powder is 7070 yuan/ton (previous value 7080 yuan/ton), and the price of plastic film is 8800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - LL Spot: The current price in the East China market is 7650 - 8200 yuan/ton (previous value 7700 - 8250 yuan/ton), in the North China market is 7550 - 8050 yuan/ton (previous value 7600 - 8100 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7750 - 8150 yuan/ton (previous value 7850 - 8200 yuan/ton) [2]. - PP Spot: The current price in the East China market is 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the North China market is 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous value 7200 - 7250 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton) [2]. Crude Oil Market Information - On Tuesday (April 8), the settlement price of the May 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.58 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.88 - $61.75. The settlement price of the June 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.82 per barrel, down $1.39 or 2.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.34 - $65.21 [2].