现货涨价博弈，盘面震荡加剧

Group 1: Report Core View - The spot price of coking coal and coke is in a price - increase game, and the futures market price is weak. The futures market price of coking coal and coke has reached a new low, while the spot market shows signs of stabilization. During the holiday, the price of coking coal increased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton, and some coking enterprises started the first round of price increase for coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, but the mainstream market has not adjusted yet [2][3] - The fundamentals show that the five major steel products have entered the inventory - reduction cycle. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, the blast furnace start - up rate continued to rise last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased to 238.73 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.45 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.15 tons. The rigid demand for coke is improving [3] - For coking coal, the resumption of production in domestic coal mines increased last week, with the daily average output of coking coal increasing to 76.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.1 tons. The overall recovery speed of imported coking coal supply is slow, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Under the positive feedback of industrial chain demand, coking plants have relatively good procurement of coking coal, and the inventory has gradually shifted to coking plants, but the overall inventory of coking coal has not decreased [3] - Due to the intensification of tariff policy disturbances and the impact of the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the second quarter, the coking coal futures market accelerated its decline, releasing bearish sentiment. Attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Later Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance of imported coal [4]