20250409申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250409

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Zinc: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] - Nickel: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the short - term trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices. Factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes affect these metal prices. Copper and zinc may be weak due to US tariff concerns and supply - related factors, while aluminum and nickel may fluctuate because of factors like supply - demand balance and cost uncertainties [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices resumed their decline due to US tariff concerns. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable, with power investment driven by the grid, growing home appliance production, and potential growth in automotive copper demand. However, export changes need attention. Copper prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis should be monitored [1] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices fell due to US tariffs. Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic demand in sectors like automotive, infrastructure, and home appliances is positive, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply in 2025, and the previous price drop has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be watched [1] Aluminum - Night - time Shanghai aluminum prices dropped 1.11%. After alumina reached a low level, the profit on the futures market was low, and bottom - fishing sentiment led to a small rebound. However, supply is still sufficient, limiting the upside. Downstream demand continued to recover in April, with increased orders and operating rates in sectors like profiles and alloys. Considering global risk - aversion and the ongoing destocking of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - time Shanghai nickel prices dropped 0.37%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and the discount of pure nickel to nickel sulfate has widened, limiting the downside of nickel prices. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may increase nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt inventory is low, which may drive up prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly in consolidation. Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 73,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 8,588 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 34.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,450 tons, and the daily change was 3,225 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,338 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 42.67 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 452,525 tons, and the daily change was - 2,175 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,553 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 12.15 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 125,825 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,280 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,630 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 14,150 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 211.53 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 202,938 tons, and the daily change was 630 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,545 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,870 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 29.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 235,725 tons, and the daily change was - 125 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 266,430 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 32,175 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,435 tons, and the daily change was 445 tons [2]