宝城期货资讯早班车-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple departments have introduced a series of measures to support the capital market, including central Huijin increasing ETF purchases, the central bank providing funds, financial regulators raising insurance companies' equity investment ratios, and state - owned assets management departments promoting central enterprises' repurchases and share - increases. These measures send a strong signal to stabilize the stock market [2][11][26]. - Despite short - term market fluctuations caused by factors such as US tariff policies, there are still investment opportunities. In the short term, investors can switch to dividend assets, while in the long term, technology remains the main investment line [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 5.4% year - on - year, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter [1]. - In March 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up from 50.2% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, up from 50.4% [1]. - In February 2025, CPI was - 0.7% year - on - year, down from 0.5% in the previous month; PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, slightly up from - 2.3% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Multiple parties are supporting the capital market. Central Huijin will increase ETF purchases, and the central bank will provide funds. Financial regulators and state - owned assets management departments are also taking measures [2]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell 4.21% to 1342 points on Tuesday, down for eleven consecutive days [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - The average price of copper may exceed $4 per pound this year [3]. - As of the end of March, the gold held in London vaults was 8488 tons, a 0.14% month - on - month increase [3]. - On April 8, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 72,300 yuan per ton, a new low in over 6 months [3]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's oil production in March decreased by 110,000 barrels to 26.63 million barrels compared to February [6]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in May at a premium of $1.20 over the Oman/Dubai average [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will fall to $62 and $58 respectively by December 2025, and to $55 and $51 by December 2026 [6]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - The June - delivery palm oil on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 3.4% to 4182 ringgit per ton, the lowest since October 3, 2023 [7]. - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil [7]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 31, 2024 increased by 17.66% [7]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 8, the central bank conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 102.5 billion yuan after deducting the maturity of 64.9 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Chinese government firmly opposes the US threat to increase tariffs on China and will take counter - measures if necessary [10]. - The central government and relevant departments have introduced measures to support the capital market, urban renewal, and the development of the private economy [11][12][13]. - Multiple cities are researching and preparing policies to stabilize the real estate market [14]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bond prices and yields fluctuated. Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [17]. - Some bonds will be fully redeemed, and the credit ratings of some companies have been adjusted [15]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.3368 on April 8, down 219 points from the previous trading day [21]. - The US dollar index fell 0.51% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that although there will be short - term fluctuations due to tariff policies, there will be re - entry opportunities after the fluctuations [22]. - CITIC Securities expects wider monetary policies in the future, and the bond market may be approaching a turning point [22]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that in April, the demand for credit bonds may increase, and there may be trading opportunities in long - term high - grade secondary perpetual bonds and ultra - long - term credit bonds [22]. 3.4 Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium with securities institutions to promote the healthy development of the capital market [25]. - Insurance funds are expected to bring 1.66 trillion yuan of incremental funds into the market, and the second - batch private securities fund long - term stock investment pilot of insurance funds is accelerating [25][26]. - Shanghai and Zhejiang state - owned assets management departments have introduced measures to support the repurchase and share - increase of state - owned listed companies [26]. - A - share market has been volatile, and financial institutions and listed companies are taking actions to show confidence in the market [28].