贵金属日评：对等关税表面可谈判实际要价高，旧的政治经济格局或将渐演变-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs has triggered global trade conflicts and potential liquidity crises. However, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of European fiscal easing, coupled with central banks' continuous gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to support and resistance levels of different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Gold - Shanghai Gold Futures: On April 8, 2025, the closing price was 719.22 yuan/gram, up 1.04 yuan from the previous day and down 17.08 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 559,347, and the open interest was 191,317 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Spot (T+D): The closing price was 713.23 yuan/gram, up 4.17 yuan from the previous day and down 18.28 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 69,454, and the open interest was 199,052 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 2,998.30 dollars/ounce, down 0.50 dollars from the previous day and down 159.10 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 191,636, and the open interest was 2,435 [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3,014.75 dollars/ounce, up 0.65 dollars from the previous day and down 99.70 dollars from the previous week [1]. Silver - Shanghai Silver Futures: On April 8, 2025, the closing price was 7,617 yuan/ten grams, up 66 yuan from the previous day and down 749 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 1,025,904, and the open interest was 345,267 [1]. - Shanghai Silver Spot (T+D): The closing price was -725 yuan/ten grams, up 83 yuan from the previous day and down 8,414 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 996,322, and the open interest was 3,960,914 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 29.75 dollars/ounce, down 5.02 dollars from the previous day and down 0.34 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 71,906, and the open interest was 126,137 [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 478.60 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 61.62 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.23 dollars/barrel [1]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures were 73,360 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 8,732 dollars/ton [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,348.4351, the S&P 500 was 4,982.7700, and other major stock indexes also had corresponding changes [1]. - Interest Rates: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2600%, and the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400% [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 102.9560, and the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.2038 [1]. 3.2 Important Information Gold News - Hedge fund tycoons are discussing the tariff formula. Trump's formula is four times wrong, which explains the sharp drop in US stocks. Trump's asking price for the world is extremely high, and the US has a trade deficit of over 1 trillion dollars with the world [1]. - Ray Dalio believes that what matters is not the tariff but the collapse of the old order [1]. Policy and Economic Information - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the Senate passed a budget reconciliation bill, which clears the way for the extension of Trump - era tax cuts and a significant increase in the debt ceiling. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and September, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [1]. - Trump's reciprocal tariffs have increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts in June, July, September, and December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there is an expectation of 2 - 3 more interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England maintained the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, and the market expects 2 - 3 more interest rate cuts before December 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and the market expects another interest rate hike around July [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the potential impact of Trump's tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and other factors, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].