高盛：中国消-动态追踪-2024 年第四季度有触底迹象但前景仍需谨慎；政策与关税需关注

Investment Rating - The report upgrades diversified retailers, dairy, and restaurants from neutral to a more favorable rating, while maintaining a cautious stance on apparel/footwear OEMs, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [10]. Core Insights - Signs of bottoming out in the consumer sector were observed in 4Q24, with reported sales growth averaging 14% compared to 7% in 3Q24, aided by an easier base and better-than-expected post-Chinese New Year consumption [1][14]. - The outlook for 2025 is generally prudent, with expectations for gradual recovery supported by government initiatives to boost consumption, although growth is anticipated to be back-end loaded for most categories [2]. - Online retail sales have consistently outperformed total retail sales, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [20][21]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 4Q Results - Retail sales growth improved to 4% year-on-year in January-February, up from 3.0% and 3.7% in November and December respectively, with online channels continuing to outperform [14][17]. - Margin trends were mixed; some companies reported better-than-expected margins due to favorable commodity prices and cost control, while others faced margin pressure from increased marketing and business expansion investments [15]. Expectations for 1H25 - Companies are generally optimistic about long-term growth, with some planning to increase investments despite a cautious short-term outlook [2]. - The impact of US tariffs remains a significant concern, particularly for companies with substantial exposure to the US market [2]. Sector and Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands and diversified retailers, with specific stock recommendations such as Anta, Moutai, and Midea highlighted for their potential [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy execution and tariff impacts on consumption and company performance [2][10].