高盛：中国-特朗普可能再征 50% 关税对 GDP 的额外影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The potential implementation of an additional 50% tariff by the US on Chinese goods could escalate trade tensions, with the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods rising from approximately 60% to 110% if enacted [2] - The initial 50% tariff is projected to decrease Chinese GDP by 1.5 percentage points, while a subsequent 50% tariff would have a smaller incremental impact, reducing GDP by an additional 0.9 percentage points [9] - The analysis indicates that a significant portion of US imports from China (36%) relies on China for over 70% of its supply, suggesting limited alternatives for US importers even with high tariffs [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Implications - Following China's retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US goods, President Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff if China does not withdraw its tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [2][3] - The Chinese government has signaled a readiness to take countermeasures if further US tariffs are implemented, as evidenced by the People's Bank of China's actions regarding the CNY fixing [3] Section 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The report analyzes detailed trade data, estimating that a 60% US tariff on China could decrease Chinese real GDP by approximately 2 percentage points, with the initial 50% tariff causing a 1.5 percentage point reduction and a subsequent 50% tariff causing a 0.9 percentage point reduction [9][4] - The report highlights that US-bound exports contribute an estimated 3 percentage points to China's total GDP, emphasizing the significant economic interdependence between the two countries [9] Section 3: Trade Reliance - The distribution of US imports from China shows a high reliance on Chinese goods, with 36% of imports depending on China for over 70% of supply, while only 10% of Chinese imports from the US have a similar reliance [4][14]