集运日报：贸易战持续发酵，美线悲观情绪加剧，推动盘面持续下探，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会-20250409

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Trade war continues to intensify, pessimism in the US line deepens, pushing the market down; current operation is difficult, risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The core logic this year depends on international tariff policies; in April, the US may change tariff policies, which adds uncertainties to the shipping market; shipping companies want to support prices, but price wars between alliances are inevitable [3] - Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] - After the trade - war - driven bearish sentiment and bearish funds enter the market, the container shipping index futures fluctuate at a low level; future attention should focus on tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On April 7, SCFIS (European route) was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1129.45 points, up 3.7% [2] - On March 28, NCFI (composite index) was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 866.25 points, down 0.65%; NCFI (US West route) on April 3 was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% [2] - On April 3, SCFI (composite index) was 1392.78 points, up 35.90 points; SCFI (European route) was 1336 USD/TEU, up 1.4%; SCFI (US West route) was 2313 USD/FEU, up 6.2% [2] - On April 3, CCFI (composite index) was 1102.71 points, down 0.8%; CCFI (European route) was 1507.27 points, down 1.3%; CCFI (US West route) was 776.61 points, down 3.6% [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 48.2), service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and composite PMI was 50.4 (February: 50.2, highest since August) [2] - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points; Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months [3] - US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (3 - month low), service PMI was 54.3 (3 - month high), and composite PMI was 53.5 (3 - month high) [3] Futures Market - On April 8, the 2506 main contract closed at 1767.0, down 8.32%, with a trading volume of 74,200 lots and an open interest of 32,800 lots, an increase of 2717 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract drops below 1900 points and the 2510 contract drops below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: In the context of tariff fermentation, pay attention to the reverse - spread structure, with a short window period and high volatility [4] - Long - term: Currently, the far - month contracts are at a large discount; all positions have been suggested to take profit. Wait for the price war situation to be clear in April and then make arrangements when the far - month contracts reach appropriate prices [4] Other Information - On April 7, the Houthi armed forces attacked Israeli and US military targets; the US and Israel have not responded [5] - The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China on April 7; China firmly opposes it and will take counter - measures if the measure is implemented [5]