Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: None - Bearish: Palm oil, crude oil, fuel oil, BR rubber, PTA, short - fiber, benzene, urea, styrene - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, treasury bond, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon iron, glass, soda ash, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, corn, paper pulp, log, live pig, asphalt, ethylene glycol, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, caustic soda, container shipping European line - Wait - and - See: Nickel, stainless steel, paper pulp Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the investment trends and trading strategies of various commodities in different industries under the background of global trade frictions, tariff policies, and macro - economic conditions. It provides suggestions for investors based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: IF and IH April contracts' discount has increased significantly, and with the national team's support, short - term long positions can be considered for trading rebounds [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold: After a short - term adjustment, it is expected to enter an oscillating phase and still has long - term upward potential [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, Aluminum: Due to the escalation of global trade frictions and rising market risk - aversion sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, the supply - surplus pattern persists, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Zinc: At the current price, the fundamentals still support zinc prices, and the downward space should be viewed with caution [1]. - Nickel: Affected by unexpected US tariffs, China's counter - measures, and Indonesian policies, nickel prices have weakened significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on cost support and policy changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: In the short term, stainless - steel futures may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate. Attention should be paid to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1]. - Tin: Although tin prices have been affected by macro risks, the short - term shortage of tin ore supply remains, and there is still upward potential [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil: Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, and short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, with opening prices dropping [1]. - Iron Ore: Tariff policies affect market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - Manganese Silicon: High inventory but cost support [1]. - Silicon Iron: Cost has weakened, but production areas have cut production, and social inventory is at a medium level [1]. - Glass: Demand is released in pulses, and the upward space is limited due to intense capital games [1]. - Soda Ash: Alkali plants are resuming production, demand is increasing, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal, Coke: Supply - demand is relatively surplus, and it is recommended that industrial customers seize the opportunity for positive basis trading and selling hedging when the price rebounds to a premium [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: International oil prices have fallen significantly, and with the increase in production in Malaysia and Indonesia, the center of palm - oil prices is expected to move down [1]. - Soybean Oil: The far - month contracts are driven by tariff policies, but the near - month contracts are weak due to high inventory. Reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Supported by the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations and recent cold snaps, the market is strong, but the near - month contracts are pressured by high inventory. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads [1]. - Cotton: If crude oil continues to decline, cotton - spinning demand may be weak. The substitution between chemical fibers and cotton also exerts pressure on cotton prices [1]. - Sugar: Overseas supply shortages have led to a strong rise in international sugar prices, while domestic production has increased year - on - year, and high industrial inventory restricts the upward space of domestic prices [1]. - Corn: The direct impact of the trade war on corn is limited, but it has a significant positive impact on soybean meal. Corn is expected to oscillate strongly in the later stage [1]. - Soybean Meal: As a risk - hedging long - position variety, the trade war has increased import - cost expectations, and domestic downstream transactions have improved, with the short - term market expected to be strong [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil, Fuel Oil: Global tariff policies drag down demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating the pace of production increase [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors, it oscillates [1]. - Natural Rubber: With the upcoming new rubber - tapping season and increasing domestic inventory, demand is dragged down by tariff policies [1]. - BR Rubber: The domestic butadiene - rubber market continues to be weak, and there are expectations of further price declines [1]. - PTA: MX performance has weakened, PX floating prices are not strong, and downstream production cuts have hit demand [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some plants have carried out maintenance and reduced production [1]. - Short - Fiber: Factories have cut production, and although the processing margin has expanded, it is still difficult to change the downward trend following costs [1]. - Benzene, Styrene: Downstream demand is weak, and prices are in a weak state [1]. - Urea: Prices are weakly stable in the short term and may decline again if there is no effective support [1]. - Methanol: The basis has strengthened, and the spot market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short and medium terms [1]. - PE, PP, PVC: Affected by macro risks, trade disputes, and supply - demand relationships, they oscillate weakly [1]. - Caustic Soda: Trade disputes have led to a decline in upstream production, and the spot price has stabilized, while the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - term price cuts should be considered carefully when short - selling. As the market shows a safety margin, long positions can be lightly established in peak - season contracts, and 6 - 8 reverse spreads can be continuously monitored [1].
日度策略参考-20250409
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-04-09 05:56