铅锌日评：宏观扰动，铅价跟随回落，基本面偏弱+宏观利空，沪锌偏弱运行-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is affected by macro disturbances and weak fundamentals, with the lead price expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] - The zinc market has a weak fundamental situation with increasing supply and demand in the recovery stage. Affected by macro factors, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625.00 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,540.00 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,870.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.84, down 0.72% [1] - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 49,232.00 lots, down 45.52%; the open interest was 42,720.00 lots, down 3.63%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 1.15, down 43.47% [1] - The LME lead inventory was 235,725.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 61,687.00 tons, down 0.20% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with a 23 - percentage - point increase in electrolytic lead production in March. Some smelters in Henan will enter maintenance in April, and the production may decrease month - on - month [1] - In the secondary lead market, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the overall price of waste batteries is still firm. If downstream enterprises resume production as scheduled this week and smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, the finished product inventory of secondary lead will decline again [1] - On the demand side, the post - Spring Festival restocking peak did not appear, and it is currently the off - season, with limited support for the lead price [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement and the decline of the external market during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the lead price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] Zinc 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,470.00 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,295.00 yuan/ton, down 1.46%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,553.00 US dollars/ton, down 2.35%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.73, up 0.92% [1] - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 260,461.00 lots, down 18.40%; the open interest was 79,667.00 lots, down 16.07%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 3.27, down 2.77% [1] - The LME zinc inventory was 125,825.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 8,656.00 tons, down 10.09% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The tight supply of zinc concentrates is expected to improve, the cost - side support has weakened, and the smelters' profit and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increasing production [1] - On the demand side, the galvanizing sector was mostly in normal production during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, with little impact on production; the die - casting zinc alloy sector's production decreased due to the holiday, but the actual orders were okay; the zinc oxide sector's production increased due to improved demand and fewer holiday - taking enterprises [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the continuous rise of TC, the weakening of cost - side support, the increasing supply of zinc ingots, and the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1]