“座谈会”后民企债收益表现和投资展望

Market Overview - Chinese policies are encouraging economic recovery, leading to a rebound in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks after a previous decline, with notable performance in domestic demand-related stocks[3] - European markets ended a four-day decline with a 2.7% rise in the Euro Stoxx 600 index, driven by hopes for progress in EU tariff negotiations[3] - U.S. markets experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq opening up 4% but closing down 2.2%, as concerns over escalating tariffs impacted market sentiment[3] Currency and Commodities - Trump's insistence on increasing tariffs on China has heightened risk aversion, causing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to outperform other G-10 currencies, while the offshore yuan hit a record low[4] - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war have led to a decline in global demand, with New York crude oil prices falling below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021, closing at $59.58[4][28] - International gold prices rebounded after three consecutive declines, with New York gold rising 0.6% to $2,968.4 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - The upcoming tariffs and ongoing trade tensions have led to market volatility and liquidity tightening, resulting in a sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries and a steepening yield curve[5][30] - Investment-grade bond spreads in Asia narrowed by 2-5 basis points as market sentiment slightly improved[5][30] Corporate Insights - The Chinese private enterprise bond market is showing signs of recovery, with net financing improving and financing costs decreasing, indicating potential investment opportunities[7] - Alibaba's projected revenue growth of approximately 8% for Q4 2025, reaching 238.6 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA expected to rise by 35% year-on-year[9] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, with a 1.51% increase, driven by strong performances in technology and consumer sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.79%[13] - A-shares showed a steady recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.58% to 3,145 points, supported by government policies aimed at boosting agriculture and infrastructure[18]