Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Corn selling progress is faster year - on - year, with only about 10% of the remaining grain in the market. Imported corn and alternative grains' imports have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure. However, downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have high inventories, with insufficient short - term demand growth. Potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5][39]. - Medium - to - long - term: As downstream demand recovers, tariff - affected imports of US corn may decline significantly, and the demand for domestic corn will strengthen. The supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and there may be an upward expectation for corn in the medium - to - long term. Overall, since the external dependence of corn is gradually weakening, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [5][39]. Summary by Directory I. Corn Market Structure - Price trend: As of early April, the corn index price in March showed a V - shaped reversal. After falling to 2250 yuan/ton at the end of February, it rebounded to test the 2350 yuan/ton resistance level, then failed to break through and declined again to test the 2250 yuan/ton support level [7]. - Supply situation: Since the new grain was launched, the enthusiasm of grass - roots grain sales has been relatively high. The grain - selling progress in North China and Northeast China before the Spring Festival was faster than in previous years, approaching 90%. Currently, there is little remaining grain. Imports of corn and alternative grains have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure [7]. - Demand situation: The pig production capacity is continuously recovering, and feed consumption is expected to increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is improving. However, potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The recent tariff event may affect corn prices, but overall, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [7]. - Term - structure: The overall structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [8]. II. Market行情 Analysis 1. Supply Side - Global corn supply - demand situation and tariff impact: The US Department of Agriculture's March supply - demand report shows that the estimated corn planting area in the US in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, the highest in 12 years. The quarterly inventory on March 1, 2025, was 8.15 billion bushels, close to market expectations. Due to the expected increase in planting area, US corn prices began to decline under pressure in late March. However, due to the year - on - year decline in quarterly inventory and the market's "bad news is out" mentality, the main contract of CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher on Monday, holding above the 4.5 - dollar mark. The US announced new tariff policies, which will reduce US corn exports. US corn prices have dropped from 520 cents/bushel to 450 cents/bushel, reflecting the expected impact of tariffs on exports. US corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly at 450 cents/bushel, and there is still great uncertainty about the future planting area [10][11]. - Remaining grain situation: The corn production in the 2024/2025 season is still in the category of a bumper harvest, although it has decreased. Different institutions have different judgments on the increase or decrease in corn production. The remaining grain in most domestic producing areas has almost run out, and the market supply is tightening. The selling peak has passed, and most of the grain has been transferred to traders and processing enterprises. As it is the spring plowing season, farmers' focus has shifted, and the remaining grain sales may slow down. Supported by the policy of continuous purchasing by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, the sentiment of holders expecting price increases is rising, and their willingness to sell is weak, leading to a tightening supply. However, due to the price difference between North China and Northeast China, some traders in Northeast China are willing to sell to North China, and the market liquidity is good [13][14]. - Import and policy impact: The recent tariff event has limited impact on the import of corn and alternative grains. China has accelerated the diversification of grain imports in recent years, and the proportion of US corn and wheat imports in China's total imports is less than 20%. The impact of tariff policies is relatively limited, but the impact on US sorghum may be relatively large. On the domestic front, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has been purchasing to support the market since the new grain was launched, and the purchase volume of reserve - grain corn has been greater than the sales volume since 2025, which is conducive to expanding the sales channels of new grain and alleviating the pressure on farmers to sell grain. In the context of weakening imports and substitution, the market sentiment is boosted, and the futures market may be supported later [18][19]. 2. Demand Side - Pig production and feed demand: The destocking process of sows is slow, and the inventory of sows has always remained above the normal market level. In February 2025, the inventory of sows was 40.66 million. As of March 28, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 51.83 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 27.13 yuan per head. The pig market faces double pressures on the cost and supply sides. The pig spot price has a driving force to return to the breeding cost, showing low - profit characteristics throughout the year. In 2024, the quarterly pig slaughter volume was lower than in previous years, and with the continuous increase in pig inventory, the market supply is sufficient. The demand for pig feed is expected to increase year - on - year this year, but currently, it is mainly about consuming the previous inventory. Although there is a large - scale rigid demand for feed, it is difficult to have an increase [25]. - Deep - processing demand: Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement, and some deep - processing enterprises may consume inventory by auctioning old grain. The overall processing demand is difficult to increase significantly. As of April 3, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 61.49%, a 0.56% decrease from the previous period, and the production volume of deep - processed corn starch was 64.99 tons, a 0.59% decrease from the previous period. The processing profit of corn starch was - 45.20 yuan per ton. High costs have greatly compressed the profit space, and the adjustment expectation of the operating rate has affected market confidence. Enterprises' procurement actions are relatively cautious [35][37]. III. Market Outlook - Short - term: The corn selling progress is faster year - on - year, with only about 10% of the remaining grain in the market. Imported corn and alternative grains' imports have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure. However, downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have high inventories, with insufficient short - term demand growth. Potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5][39]. - Medium - to - long - term: As downstream demand recovers, tariff - affected imports of US corn may decline significantly, and the demand for domestic corn will strengthen. The supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and there may be an upward expectation for corn in the medium - to - long term. Overall, since the external dependence of corn is gradually weakening, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [5][39].
玉米期货月报-20250409
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-04-09 06:18