美国关税对中国半导体行业影响

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" for companies with strong domestic substitution potential, such as SMIC (981 HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK), and Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) [2][3][8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate due to increasing geopolitical risks and potential new tariffs from the U.S. [2][3] - Companies involved in wafer foundry, semiconductor equipment manufacturing, and chip design, particularly those focusing on artificial intelligence and analog semiconductors, are likely to benefit from this trend [2][3] - The report anticipates significant volatility in global stock markets in the near term, prompting investors to seek safer investment strategies, such as high-dividend defensive stocks [2] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Manufacturing - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is not currently affected by the new tariffs, but future policies may impact overseas demand for Chinese companies' foundry services. Local foundries are expected to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand and an increase in orders returning to China. Recommended stocks include Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Equipment - Although semiconductor equipment is included in the tariff scope, Chinese manufacturers have minimal exposure to U.S. revenues, suggesting limited impact. European semiconductor equipment companies may face greater challenges. Recommended stock is Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Chip Design (Logic Chips) - Logic chip design companies are expected to benefit from the trend of localization, with a focus on self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence. However, some advanced process logic chips may still face foundry risks [3] Semiconductor Chip Design (Analog Chips) - Analog chip design companies are also expected to benefit from increased domestic substitution. Recommended stocks include Zhaoxin Microelectronics (300782 CH, Hold) and Beike Microelectronics (2149 HK, Buy), as domestic companies are likely to have a stronger desire to replace U.S. firms like Texas Instruments and ADI [3][4] Overall Market Outlook - Companies with significant revenue from the U.S. may face stock price pressure in the short term due to tariff impacts. In the medium to long term, tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, affecting the global semiconductor supply chain. Companies benefiting from domestic substitution and self-sufficiency are expected to perform better [3][4]