安粮期货生猪日报-20250409

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term outlook for the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be in consolidation [1]. - The short - term outlook for the soybean meal is likely to be in a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to large emotional fluctuations [2]. - The short - term corn futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3][4]. - After a sharp decline, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be considered [5]. - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be in a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6][7]. - The steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices are likely to oscillate at a low level [8]. - The coking coal and coke are likely to have a weak and volatile rebound at a low level, with limited upside space [9]. - The iron ore 2505 contract is likely to be in a short - term oscillation, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - For the WTI crude oil, attention should be paid to the support level of the INE crude oil main contract around 430 - 450 yuan/barrel after the sharp decline [11]. - The rubber market is likely to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating conditions of Shanghai rubber [13]. - The PVC futures price is likely to oscillate at a low level due to weak macro - sentiment [14][15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Information: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Market Analysis: Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacts the futures market. Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil are expected to be neutral, and the inventory is likely to be in consolidation [1]. Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 30), Tianjin 3,270 yuan/ton (- 20), Rizhao 3,200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Dongguan 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. - Market Analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete. U.S. soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply may be tight in the short - term but will turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and oil - mill inventories are neutral. Short - term sentiment is strong due to tariff events [2]. Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,088 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,293 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan [3]. - Market Analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach a 12 - year high. The domestic supply pressure is reduced, and the demand from the pig - breeding industry is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors, and the price is mainly determined by domestic supply and demand [3]. Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan, down 4,540 yuan, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5]. - Market Analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs cause overseas capital market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of stage resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 71,900 yuan/ton (- 1,500), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (- 1,200) [6]. - Market Analysis: The cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the 70,000 - yuan integer support [6]. Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel - mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [8]. - Market Analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The short - term price is affected by macro - policy expectations [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 3.4756 million tons and 2.1713 million tons respectively [9]. - Market Analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 770 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 769 yuan [10]. - Market Analysis: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [10]. Crude Oil - Spot Information: Not provided in the report. - Market Analysis: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs", the global capital market tumbled, and OPEC+ decided to increase production in May. The US PMI data contracted, and the demand is worried. The crude oil has entered a technical bear market [11]. Rubber - Spot Information: The prices of different types of rubber, such as domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked sheets, and Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, are provided [12]. - Market Analysis: The US "reciprocal tariffs" impact China's tire and automobile exports. The global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the demand may be severely suppressed [13]. PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,800 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [14]. - Market Analysis: The production enterprise operating rate is increasing, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to macro - tariff factors [14]. Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,464.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [16]. - Market Analysis: The production is increasing, the inventory is accumulating at the factory and decreasing in the society, the demand is average, and the market is affected by macro - events and related varieties [16].