COMEC(SH:600685) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-09 07:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 1006% to 1.201 billion [1] - The significant growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to improved production efficiency and revenue from shipbuilding products, as well as better performance from joint ventures [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.7 billion and 2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1005.77% to 1200.91% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 554.01% to 672.92% [1] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is seeing a mixed demand with a 61% year-on-year decline in new orders from January to March 2025, while container ship orders increased by 238% [2] - The new ship price index has shown a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, indicating a historical peak since 2021 [2] - Supply constraints and inflationary pressures are expected to drive ship prices higher [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 850 million, 1.616 billion, and 2.410 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 90%, and 49% [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 35, 19, and 12, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 1.6, 1.5, and 1.3 [4]