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股指期货将偏弱宽幅震荡,黄金、白银、铜、螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡,锡、玻璃、20号胶期货将震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-09 08:25

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on April 9, 2025. Index futures are expected to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, while some commodity futures like those of gold, silver, copper, etc. are likely to have a weak oscillation or a weakening trend in oscillation [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang talked with EU Commission President von der Leyen, indicating China's determination to expand opening - up and cooperate with the EU. The central government has sufficient policy tools to maintain economic stability [8]. - Multiple parties, including Central Huijin, the central bank, financial regulators, and state - owned assets supervision departments, have taken measures to support the capital market, which is expected to bring large - scale incremental funds into the market [8][18]. - The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 8, with a net investment of 1025 billion yuan [8]. - The Chinese government has responded to the US tariff threat, stating that it will take counter - measures if necessary. At the same time, it has emphasized innovation in central enterprises, supported urban renewal, and promoted high - quality employment for college graduates [8][9]. - American economist Lawrence Summers believes that the US may be moving towards an economic recession due to tariff measures, which may lead to about 2 million people losing their jobs and each family facing an income loss of at least $5000. The US President is trying to revive the coal industry, and Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars [9][10]. - Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 to 0.8% from 1.5% [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed down at night. Energy and chemical products, black metals, and some agricultural products and basic metals declined, while some agricultural products such as soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose [10]. - The Shanghai government has issued a three - year action plan for the transformation and upgrading of bulk commodity trade, aiming to break through 10 trillion yuan in trade volume by 2027 [11]. - High - end supermarkets in Japan have seen a continuous 13 - week increase in rice prices, and Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline in 2025 and 2026 [11]. - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased last week [11]. - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate has reached a new low in more than six months, and the Baltic Dry Index has declined for 11 consecutive days [11]. - International oil prices fell sharply on April 8, while international precious metal futures generally rose, and London basic metals closed down across the board. Chicago agricultural product futures rose, and European and US bond yields and the US dollar index also changed [12][13][14]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some showing signs of short - term stabilization and recovery. It is expected that on April 9, index futures will have a weak and wide - range oscillation, and in April 2025, they will generally have a weakening trend in oscillation [14][15][16][24]. Treasury Bond Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures closed down, with increased short - term downward pressure. It is expected that on April 9, they will have a strong - biased oscillation [38][43][40]. Precious Metal Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of gold and silver futures showed short - term stabilization and recovery. It is expected that in April 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation and may reach a new high, while the silver futures will have a weakening trend in oscillation. On April 9, both are expected to have a weak oscillation [47][52]. Base Metal Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures showed different trends, with varying degrees of downward pressure. It is expected that in April 2025, they will generally have a weakening trend in oscillation, and on April 9, they will have a weak oscillation or a weakening trend in oscillation [58][63][68][75]. Black Metal Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal futures generally closed down, with increasing downward pressure. It is expected that in April 2025, they will have a weakening trend in oscillation, and on April 9, they will have a weak oscillation [79][84][86][92]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On April 8, the main contracts of glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, natural rubber, and 20 - number rubber futures showed different trends, with significant downward pressure on some. It is expected that in April 2025, they will generally have a weakening trend in oscillation, and on April 9, they will have a weak oscillation or a weakening trend in oscillation [93][96][98][102][104][105][109].