上海证券2025年4月基金投资策略：海外估值向下修正，国内资产性价比提高

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has led to downward adjustments in overseas asset valuations, while domestic asset value has improved due to supportive policies in innovation, consumption, and finance, resulting in a positive outlook for the domestic economy since early 2025 [1][15][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy against external risks, bolstered by the development of the internal circulation economy and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances the long-term attractiveness of domestic assets despite short-term challenges from geopolitical tensions [1][15][20] - The report suggests that the April 2025 fund allocation should focus on three areas: the impact of U.S. policy changes on global economic development, new opportunities arising from structural improvements in the domestic economy, and the valuation effects on precious metals and oil due to changing expectations [1][15][20] Market Review - As of March 31, 2025, global equity asset performance was mixed, with A-shares and H-shares outperforming overseas markets, yielding returns of -0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while value stocks in A-shares achieved a growth of 0.8% [7][12] - Domestic bond assets remained stable despite increased volatility in interest rate bonds, with the China Bond Index only declining by 0.2%, and credit bonds showing stronger resilience [7][12] Market Outlook - The report identifies the U.S. policy environment as a significant uncertainty for global economic development, with protectionist measures potentially harming the recovery of other economies [16][20] - It notes that the domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, supported by various policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving market liquidity, which has led to a stable performance in service and manufacturing PMIs [20][21] Major Asset Allocation - The report recommends a diversified asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of balancing investments across different asset classes to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [44] - For equity funds, it suggests maintaining confidence in long-term investments, focusing on high certainty in performance, profitability, and dividends, particularly in themes like dividends and large-cap funds [47][48] - For fixed income funds, it highlights the continued attractiveness of credit bonds and recommends a focus on medium to short duration bonds for stability [49][50] - The report advises on QDII funds, suggesting a cautious approach to oil investments due to geopolitical risks and a focus on value stocks outside the U.S. market, particularly in Europe and Hong Kong [51][54]