Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-09 09:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The 104% tariff imposed by the US on China will inhibit the export of domestic PVC products and raw materials. The supply pressure is expected to ease due to the concentrated maintenance of domestic PVC plants in April. The downstream product enterprises' operating load is expected to continue to increase seasonally, but the growth rate is expected to slow down marginally. The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia may remain stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,861 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 957,470 lots, up 20,551 lots; the open interest was 658,920 lots, down 44,546 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 733,650 lots, up 3,930 lots; the short position was 819,193 lots, down 28,581 lots; the net long position was -85,543 lots, up 32,511 lots [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of ethylene-based PVC in East China was 5,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,832.31 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. In South China, the ethylene-based PVC was 5,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,933.75 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -107 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,933.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,747 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 541 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 226 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 221 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.4%, up 0.51 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, down 0.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 45.39 tons, down 1.52 tons; in East China, it was 40.53 tons, down 1.35 tons; in South China, it was 4.86 tons, down 0.17 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 6,6140,000 square meters, down 67,278.840,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,059,720,000 square meters, down 127,275.360,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 16.23%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.12%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 24.71%, down 0.88 percentage points [3]. Industry News - On April 9, the 104% tariff imposed by the US on China took effect. On April 9, the cash - remittance price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou warehouses dropped by 50 - 60 yuan/ton. From March 29 to April 4, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.02%, up 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. As of April 3, the PVC social inventory decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 777,800 tons, and decreased by 11.65% year - on - year [3].