光大期货金融期货日报-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 8, the A-share market stabilized with the Wind All A index rising 1% and a trading volume of 1.65 trillion yuan. Policy-driven funds boosted the consumer and dividend sectors, while export - sensitive sectors like electronics, automotive, and textiles were weak. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.67%, but due to the previous day's futures contract suspension, the basis of the main contract widened significantly, with futures contract declines ranging from 1.65% to 2.28%. The CSI 500 rose 0.75%, the SSE 50 rose 2.8%, and the basis of large - cap indexes narrowed, with futures contracts rising more [1] - Under the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, the weighted tax rate on Chinese exports to the US may rise to around 66% (12% + 20% + 34%). Many countries are starting trade negotiations with the US, and it's necessary to watch if third - countries use the tariff hike on China as an opportunity to get the US to lower tariffs on them. This policy will have a long - term impact on the A - share market, and China's economic focus will shift more to the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumer - promotion logic more reasonable. Expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts have resurfaced, and the window for the central bank to buy treasury bonds may reopen. It is recommended to hold short positions in stock index futures and sell short positions in stock index options of the same expiration month for hedging [1] - On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.54%, the 10 - year down 0.17%, the 5 - year down 0.15%, and the 2 - year down 0.08%. The central bank conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a stable rate of 1.5%. With 64.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net injection of 102.5 billion yuan. In the inter - bank market, the DR001 rate rose 0.81bp to 1.7517%, and the DR007 rate rose 3.4bp to 1.7767%. In the short term, the capital market will remain tight, with little possibility of significant loosening or tightening. After a full - fledged rise, the bond market has returned to a sideways consolidation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On April 8, 2025, IH was at 2,513.2 (up 2.95% from the previous day), IF at 3,543.8 (up 2.64%), IC at 5,271.0 (up 0.66%), and IM at 5,313.6 (down 2.19%) [3] - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 was at 2,574.4 (up 2.28%), the SSE 300 at 3,650.8 (up 1.71%), the CSI 500 at 5,326.9 (up 0.75%), and the CSI 1000 at 5,530.0 (up 0.61%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: TS was at 102.58 (down 0.10%), TF at 106.27 (down 0.20%), T at 108.90 (down 0.26%), and TL at 120.02 (down 0.65%) [3] - Treasury Bond Yields: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.4753, 1.5447, 1.6572, and 1.8550 respectively, with increases of 4.49, 4.55, 2.42, and 3 basis points compared to the previous day [3] 3.2 Market News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated on the 8th that it will fully support central enterprises and their listed subsidiaries to increase shareholding and repurchase efforts, maintain shareholders' rights, boost market confidence, and enhance company value [4] - The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods on April 7. China firmly opposes this. If the US implements the tariff hike, China will take counter - measures. The US "reciprocal tariff" is a unilateral and bullying act, and China's counter - measures are legitimate. China urges the US to correct its actions, cancel all unilateral tariffs, and resolve disputes through dialogue [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures Charts: Include the trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, and their respective basis trends over time [6][7][8] - Treasury Bond Futures Charts: Show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - Exchange Rate Charts: Display the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, and currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [20][21][24]