贵金属日报：内强外弱-20250409

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, with the monthly line remaining strong. However, the weekly and daily lines show adjustment signals, and the volatility has increased significantly. It is recommended that investors hold positions lightly and cautiously or wait and see, and then gradually build long positions after the daily - level stop - falling signal appears [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed a pattern of strength in the domestic market and weakness in the overseas market. Although the escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts suppressed the prices of precious metals denominated in US dollars, the depreciation of the RMB on the exchange - rate side still supported the performance of domestic precious metals. The surrounding US dollar index was under pressure, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, crude oil and Bitcoin were weak, US stocks were under pressure while European stocks rose, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also adjusted weakly. COMEX Gold 2506 contract closed at $2998.3 per ounce, up 0.83%; US Silver 2505 contract closed at $29.75 per ounce, up 0.49%. SHFE Gold 2506 main contract closed at 719.22 yuan per gram, up 0.37%; SHFE Silver 2506 contract closed at 7683 yuan per kilogram, up 0.26% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Hike Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch", the market expects a 45.2% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on May 8, 2025, and a 54.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. By June 19, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 51%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 45.9%. By July 31, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 46.7%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 925.92 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 21.22 tons to 13937.6 tons daily. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 45.8 tons to 1104.8 tons daily; as of the week ending March 28, SGX silver inventory increased by 37.2 tons weekly to 1768.4 tons [3][4] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Fed's Daly said that Fed's policy is in a very good state and is moderately restrictive. The Fed can take its time and act cautiously in policy. This week, in terms of data, the main focus is on the US March CPI data on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 2:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; at 0:00 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club; at 17:45, ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Eurogroup's press conference; at 22:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; at 23:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Special attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariff policies on April 9 [5] 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract was at 719.22 yuan per gram, up 0.14%; SGX Gold TD was at 717.4 yuan per gram, up 0.58%; CME Gold main contract was at $2998.3 per ounce, down 0.02%. SHFE Silver main - continuous contract was at 7683 yuan per kilogram, up 0.87%; SGX Silver TD was at 7689 yuan per kilogram, up 1.09%; CME Silver main contract was at $29.75 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE - TD Gold was at 1.82 yuan per gram, up 2500%; SHFE - TD Silver was at - 6 yuan per kilogram, up 53.33%. CME gold - silver ratio was 99.6776, down 3.7% [7] - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory was 15,675 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1401.6549 tons, down 0.02%. SHFE gold holdings were 186,814 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold holdings were 925.92 tons, down 0.09%. SHFE silver inventory was 1104.782 tons, down 3.98%; CME silver inventory was 15304.2415 tons, up 0.4%. SGX silver inventory was 1768.38 tons, up 2.15%. SHFE silver holdings were 345,267 lots, unchanged; SLV silver holdings were 13937.602178 tons, up 0.15% [13] - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview: The US dollar index was at 102.9585, down 0.46%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.3936, up 0.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 37,645.59 points, down 0.84%; WTI crude oil spot was at $59.58 per barrel, down 1.85%. LmeS copper 03 was at $8588 per ton, down 1.87%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.26%, up 2.65%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.04%, up 4.08%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.42%, up 27.27% [18]