农产品日报-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector showed a strong performance on Tuesday, with double - meal prices rising due to tariff policies. The overall view for each variety is as follows: corn is expected to be volatile and strong, soybean meal is expected to be volatile, oils are expected to be volatile, eggs are expected to be volatile and strong, and live pigs are expected to be volatile and strong [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, affected by tariff policies, the corn futures market saw a shift of long - and short - position main forces from the May contract to the July contract. The weighted contract positions decreased. In the spot market, the increase in import costs due to tariff hikes led to a firm price. The price in North China remained stable with minor adjustments, and the price in the sales area was generally stable. Technically, the July contract is expected to get support, with short - term attention on the 2330 price pressure and caution for price adjustment risks [2] - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to technical rebounds. The market is awaiting the latest USDA supply - demand report. Analysts predict that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 season will be 379 million bushels, and the global soybean inventory is expected to be 122.07 million tons. In the domestic market, the protein meal increased in positions and prices, and the soybean meal futures price reached a six - month high. The low operating rate of oil mills and reduced inventory provided support. The strategy is to view soybean meal as volatile and strong [2] - Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil changed little. Crude oil and US soybean oil provided support, but concerns about rising palm oil inventories restricted price increases. The March supply - demand report of Malaysian palm oil is expected to show a 3% increase in inventory to 1.56 million tons. Rapeseed near - month contracts continued to rise. In the domestic market, the futures prices of oils stabilized, and rapeseed oil was resistant to decline. The inventory of the three major oils continued to decline, and the spot basis was firm. The operation suggestion is to participate intraday [2] - Eggs: On Tuesday, egg futures continued to rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the 2505 contract is stronger than the far - month contract. The spot price increased in some areas. In the short term, supported by the feed end, the spot and futures prices of eggs rebounded from low levels. However, considering the current egg - laying hen breeding market, the supply of eggs is likely to increase in the future, and the egg price is likely to have a weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal demand and feed costs on egg prices [2][3] - Live Pigs: On Tuesday, the main live - pig contract continued to rebound. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US boosted the agricultural products sector, and the increase in feed raw material prices supported the pig price. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price rose slightly. In the futures market, the short - term pig price is boosted by rising raw materials, while the medium - term supply pressure still affects the market. In April, the game between macro and fundamentals continues, and short - term participation is recommended [3] 3.2 Market Information - Some European investors are withdrawing gold from the US due to concerns about Trump's trade policies [4] - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil to reduce the burden on exporters by about 5% [4] - Trump signed an executive order to promote the development of the US coal industry [4] - Trump supports large - scale spending cuts in the US government, with a target of over $1 trillion [4] - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars starting from 0:01 on the 9th, and will implement a relief plan for car manufacturers [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and live pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][10][13] - Contract Basis: The report shows contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][20][22] 3.4 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [28] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with a long - term career in futures and many awards [28] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in team awards and media interviews [28]