碳酸锂日报（2025年4月9日）-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 8, 2025, the 2505 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.43% to 70,280 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,400 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 200 yuan/ton to 70,450 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 100 yuan/ton to 69,250 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) declined 100 yuan to 74,375 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1380 tons to 28,403 tons [3]. - The supply growth rate slowed down. The weekly output increased by 307 tons to 17,625 tons, and the estimated lithium carbonate output in April is expected to increase 1.1% month - on - month to 80,000 tons. Demand remained in the peak season. The estimated output of ternary materials in April is expected to increase 7% month - on - month to 62,000 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase 0.7% month - on - month to 260,000 tons. In March, the national new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.14 million, a 37% year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 1477 tons to 129,000 tons, with increases in upstream and downstream and decreases in other links [3]. - Overseas macro disturbances led to a bearish market sentiment. In the short term, the spot market is relatively strong, and some upstream enterprises have shutdown/overhaul operations. However, the warehouse receipt inventory has been increasing recently. In the medium term, lithium ore supply will gradually become sufficient, and lithium ore prices show a slight downward trend, with the marginal cost support moving down. During the corporate earnings report season, most project costs have decreased. The ratio of available/long - term contracts has reduced the activity of zero - order procurement in the market, and the terminal and cathode inventories are under pressure. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on the demand side and the opportunity to short at high levels for the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 70,280 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 812 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1030 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.3 US dollars/kg [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 58,800 yuan/ton. Among the precursor and cathode materials, the prices of most products remained unchanged, while the prices of some products such as ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) decreased slightly. Among the battery products, the prices of some products such as square lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 2024 to March 2025 [35][37]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].