冠通每日交易策略-20250409

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soymeal is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, while the long - term trend is bullish due to tariff policies. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The copper market is currently mainly trading on the expectation of macro - economic recession, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the fundamentals are still resilient, and it is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is weakening, and the possibility of positive news is low. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract expected to operate between 68,000 - 77,000 yuan [12]. - The asphalt market is weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen [13][15]. - The PP market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16]. - The plastic market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL, and short the 05 basis of plastic on highs [18]. - The PVC market is under short - term downward pressure [19]. - The palm oil 05 contract is under pressure and running weakly, and the soybean oil 09 contract is running weakly [20]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position and hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [21]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [23]. - The coking coal market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [24]. - The urea market is mainly moving weakly and volatilely, with the main contract expected to oscillate widely between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soymeal - The main 09 contract of soymeal opened high and closed low today, with increased positions and a closing increase of 0.55%. - Internationally, Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. Domestically, China imposed counter - tariffs on the US. The soybean import supply has reached an inflection point, and the pressure is prominent. - The weekly soybean import volume of crushers is 1202,500 tons, a slight decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The weekly output of soymeal is 813,700 tons, a decrease of 14.36% from the previous week. The weekly apparent demand has increased by 3.29%, and the inventory has decreased by 22.58% [3]. 3.2. Crude Oil - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5th, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9th. - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May. Trump said the US will negotiate directly with Iran. - The market is worried about the global economy, and crude oil prices are weakening [4]. 3.3. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on April 9th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shipping to Europe and PX fell by more than 6%, while eggs, ferrosilicon, and Shanghai gold rose by nearly 2%. - Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [6]. 3.4. Capital Flows - As of 15:19, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2506 (1.515 billion yuan), 30 - year treasury bonds 2506 (493 million yuan), and soybean oil 2509 (256 million yuan). - Funds flowed out of Shanghai copper 2505 (2.974 billion yuan), PTA2505 (1.507 billion yuan), and ethylene glycol 2505 (959 million yuan) [8]. 3.5. Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed down today. The market is pessimistic about the economic outlook due to the trade war, and copper prices are under pressure. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is improving. The copper market is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand [10]. 3.6. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market opened with slight fluctuations and strengthened in the afternoon. The price is affected by US tariff policies. - In March 2025, the domestic production increased by 25.2% month - on - month, and the planned production in April decreased by 4.6% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 1477 tons week - on - week [12]. 3.7. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. The downstream demand is recovering slowly, and the inventory is at a low level. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, asphalt prices are weakening [13][15]. 3.8. PP - The downstream PP开工率 is basically stable at a low level. The enterprise开工率 has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased. - The inventory has decreased, but the market is expected to move downward due to trade war concerns [16]. 3.9. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased. The downstream demand is still at a low level, and the inventory has decreased. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, the market is expected to move downward [18]. 3.10. PVC - The PVC开工率 has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is still high. - Affected by US tariff policies and the Indian anti - dumping policy, PVC prices are under pressure [19]. 3.11. Oils and Fats - The oils and fats sector fell today. Palm oil production in Malaysia increased in March, and Indonesia will adjust export taxes. - In China, palm oil import profits are inverted, and the demand is low. Soybean oil production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [20]. 3.12. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by tariff policies and trade conflicts. The short - term fundamentals have some support, but the 09 contract is under pressure [21]. 3.13. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by trade conflicts. The demand is weak, and the export is expected to decline in the long - term. They are expected to move weakly at low levels [23]. 3.14. Coking Coal - The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern. The spot market sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still under pressure due to macro risks [24]. 3.15. Urea - The urea supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to move weakly and volatilely, with the main contract operating between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26].