LMGF(SZ:002734) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-09 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the price increases of its main products, such as Abamectin and Methyl Acetate, leading to a significant improvement in Q1 performance, with a forecasted net profit of 100-120 million yuan, a substantial turnaround year-on-year, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 231.59%-297.90% [6][7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 81 million (+0.01 million), 409 million (+2.07 million), and 506 million (+2.64 million) yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22 (+0.00), 1.11 (+0.56), and 1.38 (+0.72) yuan, indicating a favorable outlook [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 5,016 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 4,524 million yuan for 2024, and 4,997 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.8% in 2024 to 23.6% in 2025, and the net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2025 [9][12] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to 13.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [9][12] Product Price Trends - The average price of Abamectin in Q1 2025 was 478,400 yuan/ton, up 33.09% year-on-year, and Methyl Acetate was 661,700 yuan/ton, up 30.67% year-on-year, contributing to the company's strong performance [7] - The price of another key product, Bactericide, increased by 52.78% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the company holding a 34% stake in Xinhe Chemical, which provides additional capacity [7][8] Market Outlook - The market for Bactericide is expected to remain tight, with prices continuing to rise due to strong export demand influenced by agricultural diseases [8] - The company anticipates a market demand growth of 8%-10% for Abamectin and Methyl Acetate over the next 2-3 years, with prices expected to remain stable or increase [8]