【能源直播间】2025年度·第3期：关税风暴暴跌后，能源&集运何去何从？

Report Information - Report Title: "Tariff Storm Plummets: Where Are Energy & Container Shipping Headed?" [2] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: April 9, 2025 [6] 1. 2025 US Tariff Policies and Countermeasures - US Tariff Policies: Since 2025, the US has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, including a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods (later exempting those meeting USMCA conditions), a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with a potential cumulative tariff on China reaching 116% [7]. - Counter - measures: China, Canada, the EU, etc., have imposed counter - tariffs on US goods. For example, China has increased tariffs on US coal, LNG, and other products [7]. 2. Impact of US Tariffs on GDP - Impact on US GDP: Various institutions have estimated the impact of US tariffs on its real GDP. Different tariff policies can lead to a drag on the US real GDP, ranging from - 0.07% to - 3.61% depending on the institution and the consideration of counter - measures [8]. - Impact on Chinese GDP: In the benchmark scenario of a 40% average tariff on China, the decline in China's exports to the US may drag down GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points next year. In the extreme scenario of a 60% average tariff, the drag may reach 1.3 percentage points [11]. 3. Chinese Fiscal Policy Responses - Benchmark Scenario: With an average tariff rate on China rising to 40%, it is generally expected to expand the fiscal deficit by 1 basis point, increasing the 2025 general public fiscal budget deficit rate to 3.5 - 3.8%, issuing 1 - 2 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and raising the local government special bond issuance quota to 4 - 4.5 trillion yuan [11]. - Extreme Scenario: When the average tariff rate on China rises to 60%, it is expected to expand the fiscal deficit by 2 basis points, increasing the 2025 general public fiscal budget deficit rate to 3.8 - 4%, issuing 2 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and raising the local government special bond issuance quota to 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan [11]. 4. Market Transition and Investment Strategies - Market Transition: In the first quarter, the market adjusted positions from the US to China and Europe. In the second quarter, it focused on domestic fiscal stimulus, US financial conditions, and tariff uncertainties. There are risks such as US concessions on tariffs to Southeast Asian countries and joint financial pressure from G7 countries [15]. - Investment Strategies: Short - term, focus on domestic policy combinations, then the impact of tariffs on the Fed's decision. Hedge assets like treasury bonds are in the trading window, and focus on domestic consumption sectors in stocks and commodities. Be patient with the valuation repair of the Greater China region, especially the correction of Hong Kong stocks. In terms of exchange rates, in the extreme scenario, there may be active depreciation; in the benchmark scenario, it will maintain stability with a limited depreciation space [15]. 5. Energy Market Analysis 5.1 Crude Oil Market - Supply and Demand: In the first quarter, oil inventories increased by 2.1%, with crude oil inventories up 5.8% and refined oil inventories down 3.5%. OPEC + production, including that of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, has different relationships with production targets [73][60]. - Price and Crack Spreads: As of the week ending March 28, the 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand decreased by 1.2% year - on - year. Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, while naphtha and propane crack spreads weakened, and high and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads strengthened passively [57]. - Import Sources: In 2024, China's coal (excluding coking coal) imports mainly came from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia. Crude oil imports came from countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia [33]. 5.2 Asphalt Market - Tariff Impact: On March 24, Trump announced a 25% secondary tariff on Venezuela, which took effect on April 2. Chinese refineries increased imports of Venezuelan oil in March to avoid sanctions, but are expected to reduce imports in April [90]. - Supply Outlook: In April, China's asphalt planned production is 228.9 million tons, a decrease of 9.7 million tons from the previous month. The supply of non - quota raw materials for local refineries remains a problem, and the discount of diluted asphalt and the contribution of fuel oil to asphalt supply are key factors [94]. 5.3 LPG Market - Historical Tariff Impact: During Trump's previous term, China imposed tariffs on US propane, leading to a contraction in international demand and a decline in prices. China achieved a domestic market premium through exchanges with Japan and South Korea [105]. - Current Market Situation: The ether - after premium has disappeared, PDH operating rates are under pressure, and the market is in a state of supply and demand game. The market is expected to be in a state of wide - range fluctuation in the short - term, and there is a risk of a rebound in the market after the stabilization of crude oil prices [122][135]. 6. Container Shipping Market Analysis - Route Distribution: Different trans - oceanic routes have different ship - type distributions and freight rates. The Asia - Europe, Asia - US West, and Asia - US East routes have different freight rates per nautical mile [143][146]. - Market Influencing Factors: The economic situation in the eurozone and production - type economies affects the container shipping market. The second quarter is a traditional peak season for demand in the Asia - Europe container shipping trade [150][153].