东吴证券晨会纪要-20250409

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "domestic substitution" in reshaping valuations under tariff pressures, highlighting China's continuous improvement in hard technology capabilities and the need for increased domestic reliance and localization in technology enterprises [1][18]. - The "Kote Estimation" system is presented as a new paradigm for capital market and industry synergy, suggesting that the positive feedback loop of valuation enhancement, confidence boost, and increased localization rates will stabilize both the capital market and economic operations [1][18]. - The report outlines three key areas for potential macro policy adjustments in response to tariff impacts: preventing export risk spread, adjusting demand structure, and expanding policy scale [1][19]. Fixed Income - The report on Hubei province's urban investment bonds indicates that the credit risk of Hubei's urban investment entities is expected to ease, with current credit spreads widening slightly to around 15 basis points, influenced by the overall market environment and local development positioning [2][21]. - Hubei's urban investment bonds have a total outstanding balance of approximately 551.86 billion yuan, with an average coupon rate of about 3.85%, indicating a manageable financing cost despite historical debt levels [2][22]. - The report suggests that investors should consider a strategy of gradually increasing positions in mid to short-term bonds, particularly in central provinces like Hubei, where some local bonds have average coupon rates exceeding 5% [2][21]. Industry Analysis - The report notes a decline in average daily trading volume and turnover rates for funds, with a significant drop in new fund issuance in March 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the fund industry [10]. - The performance of various types of funds shows that ordinary stock and mixed funds have slightly outperformed stock indices, while ETF funds have experienced net outflows, particularly in broad-based ETFs [10]. - The financial sector ETFs have shown a mixed performance, with bank ETFs experiencing a net outflow while securities ETFs saw a slight net inflow, reflecting investor sentiment in the financial markets [10]. Company Insights - Suzhou Axle Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 715 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.42%, driven by domestic brand development and overseas market expansion [11]. - The company anticipates a steady growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 194 million, 242 million, and 301 million yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating based on its competitive positioning and market strategies [11]. - Changjiang Electric Power's first-quarter performance indicates a stable increase in electricity generation, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 32.52 billion, 34.18 billion, and 35.43 billion yuan, respectively, supporting a "buy" rating [15]. Investment Recommendations - BYD's first-quarter earnings forecast exceeds market expectations, with revised net profit projections for 2025-2027 of 55 billion, 68.3 billion, and 82.1 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand and operational advantages [16]. - Gujing Gongjiu's 2024 performance report shows a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a focus on maintaining strong market presence and gradual expansion in both domestic and international markets [17].