家电行业2025Q1业绩前瞻：需求强韧性，业绩高确定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [10]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the home appliance sector shows strong resilience in performance, supported by national subsidies. Key segments such as white goods and two-wheeled vehicles are expected to continue their positive growth trends, with white goods benefiting from both domestic demand and contributions from emerging overseas markets [2][5]. - The kitchen appliance sector is stabilizing, while small appliances exhibit a mixed performance, with essential items showing resilient growth and discretionary items experiencing a decline [5][6]. Revenue Summary - White Goods: Domestic sales are expected to grow with high single-digit to double-digit increases for leading companies in Q1 2025, aided by national subsidies and strong overseas demand [6]. - Kitchen Appliances and Lighting: These sectors are projected to see slight revenue growth, although some categories like integrated stoves may experience declines [6]. - Black Goods: The sector is benefiting from structural upgrades and increased MiniLED penetration, leading to expected revenue growth of high single digits [6]. - Small Appliances: The overall trend remains mixed, with essential items maintaining growth while discretionary items decline. Companies with global expansion capabilities are expected to see faster revenue growth [6]. - Two-Wheeled Vehicles: The sector is anticipated to achieve significant growth in Q1 2025 due to favorable policies and low inventory levels at the beginning of the year [6]. Profit Summary - White Goods: Leading companies are expected to see double-digit growth in net profit due to improved demand structure and cost efficiency [7]. - Kitchen Appliances and Lighting: These sectors are projected to achieve single-digit profit growth, although some companies may face significant pressure [7]. - Black Goods: Profit margins are expected to improve due to structural upgrades [7]. - Small Appliances: Profitability remains mixed, with essential items showing resilience while discretionary items face declines [7]. - Two-Wheeled Vehicles: The sector is expected to see rapid profit growth driven by scale and structural upgrades [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performance leaders in the home appliance sector, particularly those with low exposure to U.S. tariffs and strong domestic sales trends, such as Gree Electric, Hisense, Midea Group, and Ninebot [8]. - Companies with relatively high U.S. exposure but compliant with trade agreements, like Hisense Visual and Haier Smart Home, are also recommended [8]. - Two-wheeled vehicle leaders benefiting from trade-in policies and new national standards, such as Aima Technology, are highlighted for their strong growth potential [8].