超长信用债探微跟踪：超长信用债过热了吗？

1. Core Viewpoint - Amid intensified equity market volatility and tariff disturbances, the bond market has strengthened. The yield center of existing ultra - long credit bonds has shifted down, with increased issuance and trading activity. However, due to the stronger performance of same - maturity interest - rate bonds, the credit spread of ultra - long credit bonds has widened, and trading timing should be emphasized [2][3][4][5] 2. Breakdown by Catalog 2.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The yield center of existing ultra - long credit bonds has significantly shifted down. Amid intensified equity market volatility and tariff disturbances, the bond market has strengthened, weakening the cost - effectiveness of medium - and short - duration coupon assets. Investors who missed the previous interest - rate market and seek excess returns are starting to go long on ultra - long credit bonds [2][12][13] 2.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The proportion of long - bond issuance has significantly increased. The average coupon rate of recent ultra - long credit new bonds has significantly declined compared to mid - March. Some bond - issuing entities are seizing the opportunity of low issuance costs to issue long - term bonds, leading to a surge in issuance at the end of March. In early April, the new issuance scale of ultra - long credit bonds decreased due to holiday factors, but its proportion in the total issuance scale of credit bonds remained at a high level. Investor sentiment towards subscribing to ultra - long credit new bonds has also shown signs of warming [3][21] 2.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown a notable increase. In the past two weeks, the index of government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years has continuously led the gains, and the index of long - duration credit bonds has also risen strongly. The weekly decline of AA+ credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years reached 0.86%, making it the highest - rising coupon asset [31] - The trading activity of long - term bonds has improved. Since late March, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long credit bonds has significantly increased, with the weekly trading volume of industrial long - term bonds with a maturity of over 10 years once exceeding 80 transactions. However, in the latest week, the trading enthusiasm of ultra - long credit bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10 years remained high, while the number of trading transactions of bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased significantly, indicating that investors still have concerns about the uncontrollable drawdown and liquidity flaws of ultra - long credit bonds [34] - The deviation of ultra - long credit bond trading from the valuation range has further widened, and the bullish sentiment towards 7 - 10 - year credit bonds has become intense, with the TKN trading proportion of this variety reaching 83.9%, a historical high of 93.7% in the past 24 years [38] - In terms of investor structure, insurance companies' preference for long - bond allocation has remained stable. Due to scale growth and liability - side cost constraints, wealth management products have also increased their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds recently. In addition, for the purpose of chasing the upward trend and making up for missing the interest - rate market, public funds have continuously bought long - duration credit bonds with a maturity of 5 - 10 years for two consecutive weeks, and the net purchase scale once exceeded that of other product categories and insurance companies [41] 2.4 Credit Spread and Trading Considerations - Although the yield of ultra - long credit bonds has also declined, the credit spread of ultra - long credit bonds has widened from a spread perspective because the same - maturity interest - rate bonds have risen more sharply. In the latest week, the spread of actively traded ultra - long credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years has widened to around the 70th percentile in the past 24 years. Ultra - long credit bonds have accumulated significant floating profits in April, but due to the overall weak liquidity of the variety, trading timing should be emphasized [5][46]