宏源期货日刊-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is complex, with factors such as upstream costs, equipment maintenance, and geopolitical disputes affecting prices and supply - demand relationships. The market has seen price fluctuations, including large - scale drops and small - scale rebounds. There are concerns about the market due to factors like tariff policies and oil price trends. The supply - demand situation is expected to change in the long - term, with potential for inventory reduction and supply recovery [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Index and Cost - The mid - price of crude oil on April 10, 2025, was $755.37 per ton, up 3.63% from the previous value. The price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $826 per ton, unchanged from the previous value. The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,800 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of coal - based ethylene glycol production cost and other upstream costs are also presented, with some prices remaining stable and others showing changes [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber has changed, with the price index of polyester staple fiber increasing by 3.86% to 6,480 yuan per ton on April 9, 2025, and the price index of bottle - grade chips increasing by 72.69% [1]. 3.2 Equipment Maintenance - A 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang has started maintenance as planned. A 900,000 - ton/year plant in Dalian has postponed its maintenance plan due to factors such as profit. A 300,000 - ton/year coal - based ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has had a temporary shutdown for maintenance due to equipment problems. A 475,000 - ton/year plant in East China is expected to start maintenance, with the maintenance duration around 3 - 4 weeks [2]. 3.3 Market Transaction and Price Trends - On April 9, the ethylene glycol night - session futures market had a small - scale rise after a low - level consolidation. Some polyester factories participated in price - fixing. The market was affected by factors such as geopolitical disputes, with large - scale drops and small - scale rebounds. The outer - market ethylene glycol had a large - scale rise, with the contract rising to a premium of around $888 - 889 per ton. Some trading transactions were made at around $459 - 469 per ton [2]. - The trading volume on a certain day was 363,600 lots, with the closing price at 5,059 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.54%. The market has concerns due to tariff policies and oil price drops, which have affected the cost support of ethylene glycol futures [2]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation - The supply of ethylene glycol may be affected by equipment maintenance, and in the long - term, there is a possibility of inventory reduction as demand is expected to turn weak and supply is expected to recover. The production and sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers are sluggish, with the production and sales rate of polyester filaments being 6% - 8% [2]. - The implementation of tariff policies will be a key factor affecting the market. If the policies are strictly enforced, it will have a significant impact on the supply and demand of ethylene glycol, especially on imports from the United States [2].