申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250410

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down in a volatile manner. The escalation of Sino-US trade tariff disputes weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, leading to a decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns over tariffs boosted the price of Brazilian soybeans, pushing up the cost of domestic soybean imports. There are also concerns that the export volume of new-season US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, and the domestic import volume after September may decrease. Coupled with the impact of poor planting profits, the planting area of US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, providing support for the price of distant-month soybean meal [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. It is expected that the inventory in Southeast Asian producing areas will reach an inflection point. According to SGS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, is expected to increase by 6.3%. According to SPPOMA data, the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 12.44% month-on-month. With the recovery of production in the producing areas, the inventory is expected to rise. Reuters predicts that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in March 2025 will be 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February; the production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February; the export volume is expected to be 1.02 million tons, a 2% increase from February. The fundamental outlook is bearish, but the sharp rise in overnight oil prices will provide some support for the oil sector [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7,576, 8,588, 9,205, 3,119, 2,631, and 8,844 respectively. The price changes were -52, -170, -143, -45, -84, and 26, with percentage changes of -0.68%, -1.94%, -3.15%, -1.42%, -3.09%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is currently 68, down from the previous 80; the M9 - 1 spread is currently 26, down from the previous 37 [1] International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,701 ringgit/ton, 1,013 cents/bushel, 46 cents/pound, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were -27, 20, 1, and 4, with percentage changes of -0.59%, 2.02%, 2.62%, and 1.38% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, with different percentage changes. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 7,900, with a percentage change of -0.63% [1] - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 324 [1] Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -1,130, down from the previous -999 [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 735, 500, 1,811, 9,350, 0, and 1,500 respectively, with no change in soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peanuts compared to the previous values, while the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 8,900 [1] Industry Information - Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export costs to offset the impact of the 32% "reciprocal" tariff imposed by the US on Indonesian exports. The small - scale palm oil farmers' organization SPKS proposed to reduce export tariffs and special export taxes to 0% to help stabilize the price of palm fruits [2] - The EU will impose a 25% tariff on corn starting from April 15 in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs. US soybeans will be subject to tariffs starting from December 1 [2] - According to the expected value of a foreign media survey, as of the week ending April 3, the expected net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and the expected net sales for the 2025/26 market year are 0 - 50,000 tons [2]