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全球贸易前景预期波动加大,软商品短期观望为主
Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-04-10 01:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Due to the increasing uncertainty in the global trade outlook, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Sugar - As of the end of February 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - In March 2025, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but future weather changes need to be monitored [1] - In the international market, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production did not meet expectations, leading to a further widening of the international supply - demand gap [1] Cotton - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory remains at the highest level in the past five years, with relatively sufficient supply [1] - After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, the operating rate rose to a high level, and the outbound speed of textile products also accelerated [1] - In the international market, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [1] - The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing season, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be followed [1] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - On April 8 - 9, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 18.3 dollars to 17.89 dollars, a decline of 2.24%; the price of US cotton increased from 65.66 dollars to 66.51 dollars, an increase of 1.29% [3] Spot Prices - From April 8 to 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6150.0 yuan to 6130.0 yuan, a decline of 0.33%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6040.0 yuan to 5995.0 yuan, a decline of 0.75% [3] - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.89%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14600.0 yuan to 14350.0 yuan, a decline of 1.71% [3] Spread Overview - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease from April 8 to 9, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 spread increasing by 1.37%, SR05 - 09 spread decreasing by 14.88% [3] Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1103.5 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Options - The implied volatility of SR505C6000 is 0.1193, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.45; for other options, similar data are provided [3] Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27410.0 from April 8 to 9, 2025; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9423.0 to 9365.0, a decline of 0.62% [3]