中泰期货晨会纪要-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - Trend Short: Rubber [7] - Oscillating Short: Cotton, sugar, cotton yarn, standard fuel oil, live pigs, pulp, logs, red dates, methanol [7] - Oscillating Long: Alumina, ten - year treasury bonds, two - year treasury bonds, five - year treasury bonds, apples [7] - Trend Long: None explicitly mentioned 1.2 Another Set of Ratings - Short: Sugar, soybean meal, manganese silicon, silver, plastic, eggs [9] - Neutral: Zheng cotton, hot - rolled coil, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc [9] - Long: Coking coal, rapeseed meal, methanol, aluminum, corn starch, corn [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US tariff conflict has a continuous impact on the futures market, but its marginal impact on the market has weakened. The market is entering a stage of macro - policy hedging and macro - data testing [11]. - Different futures varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, tariff policies, and seasonal factors, showing different trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 34% to 84 [11]. - The US government will suspend reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts [11]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation [11]. - The retail sales of the passenger car market in March reached 1.94 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2% [11]. 3.2 Futures Market Analysis 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The Sino - US tariff conflict has a weakened marginal impact on the market. The market is in a stage of macro - policy hedging and macro - data testing. It is recommended to wait and see or consider option strategies [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The marginal impact of the Sino - US tariff conflict on the market has weakened. It is advisable to consider simple and effective unilateral strategies and steepening the yield curve [12]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The freight volume in April is gradually recovering, but the new booking demand is limited. The supply - demand structure may turn loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [12]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The domestic cotton price is under pressure due to concerns about future demand caused by tariffs, poor upstream and downstream demand, and high inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US tariff policies on demand and supply changes [12][13]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The sugar price is affected by the demand concerns caused by US tariffs. In the long term, the possible shift from shortage to surplus in the global sugar market may suppress the price. The current domestic sugar price is oscillating and relatively resistant to decline [14]. 3.2.6 Oilseeds and Oils - Palm Oil: Affected by the weak international crude oil price and the expected increase in production, it is under pressure [15]. - Soybean Meal: The bullish sentiment caused by tariffs has weakened. The large arrival of soybeans in the second quarter may put pressure on the basis, but the tariff policy still has a certain impact on the sentiment [15]. - Eggs: The short - term downward momentum of the egg spot price has weakened. The feed price increase expectation has a certain supporting effect, but the medium - term supply - demand remains loose. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short at high prices [15]. 3.2.7 Apples - The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the sales are expected to continue to improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position [15]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The supply - demand structure lacks support, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The theoretical supply pressure continues to be realized, and the consumption is still in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities to short at high prices in the medium term [16]. 3.2.10 Crude Oil - The market sentiment has eased due to the US's suspension of tariff increases on some countries. In the long term, the supply increase and the global economic slowdown may put pressure on the price, but there may be a rebound in the short term [16]. 3.2.11 Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow the oil price to oscillate. The impact of the trade war on the demand for import - export shipping is significant [16]. 3.2.12 Plastics - L is recommended to be short - configured, and PP can be long - configured [18]. 3.2.13 Rubber - Affected by tariffs and trade frictions, the price has fallen, but it may stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options or setting a stop - loss for short - term long positions [18]. 3.2.14 Methanol - The demand is expected to weaken due to the Sino - US tariff increase, and the supply is gradually increasing. It is recommended to have a short - biased view [18]. 3.2.15 Soda Ash and Glass - The prices of soda ash and glass are affected by the tariff policy and the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash for arbitrage [19]. 3.2.16 Asphalt - The price is affected by the US's tariff deferral. It is expected to be in the range of 3200 - 3300 yuan in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the market's interpretation of the trade war [19]. 3.2.17 Paper Pulp - The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The increase in tariffs on US imports may lead to a shortage of coniferous pulp supply in the medium term. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival and inventory rhythm in April [20]. 3.2.18 Logs - The demand has improved, and the fundamentals have basically stabilized. It is expected to be in an oscillating market in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream start - up and port inventory [20]. 3.2.19 Urea - The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term after the decline, and the futures price has a strong rebound power. It is recommended to turn to a long - biased view when the downstream purchasing period or the overall commodity market improves [22]. 3.2.20 Synthetic Rubber - It may stop falling and rebound due to the US tariff policy. It is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options or setting a stop - loss for short - term long positions [23]. 3.2.21 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The trade war has an impact, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom. It is recommended to short at high prices [24]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [24]. 3.2.22 Steel and Iron Ore - The prices of steel and iron ore are affected by tariffs, and the short - term trend is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [25][26]. 3.2.23 Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke prices are under pressure due to the tariff policy. Without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, the prices are expected to be weak in the short term [27]. 3.2.24 Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: It is recommended to go long at low prices during the day, paying attention to the hedging pressure above [28]. - Manganese Silicon: It is recommended to short at high prices [28].