山金期货原油日报-20250410

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for some countries (excluding China) for 90 days reversed market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in the US government's tariff policy [2]. - OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase in May, which is a major negative factor for the supply - demand balance of the oil market [2]. - Under macro - pressure, the probability of new geopolitical information emerging is high, and attention should be paid to the situation around Iran and Turkey [2]. - The current rapid rebound of oil prices may be anchored to a weak supply - demand balance, and it is less likely for US oil to return to $70 per barrel. The technical analysis shows a clear short - term bearish trend [2]. 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread Data - Crude Oil Futures: On April 9th, Sc was at 457.60 yuan/barrel, down 21.00 yuan (-4.39%) from the previous day and 98.50 yuan (-17.71%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.71/barrel, up $4.48 (7.69%) from the previous day and down $8.43 (-11.85%) from the previous week; Brent was at $65.72/barrel, up $4.10 (6.65%) from the previous day and down $8.79 (-11.80%) from the previous week [2]. - Internal - External Spreads: Sc - WTI was at $0.79/barrel, down $7.42 (-90.41%) from the previous day and $5.55 (-87.58%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at -$2.22/barrel, down $7.04 (-146.14%) from the previous day and $5.19 (-174.88%) from the previous week [2]. - Sc Month - spreads: Sc_C1 - C2 was at 0.50 yuan/barrel, up 0.60 yuan (600.00%) from the previous day and down 2.40 yuan (-82.76%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at 3.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (6.90%) from the previous day and down 17.40 yuan (-84.88%) from the previous week [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $66.54/barrel, up $0.29 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $10.90 (-14.08%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $66.18/barrel, down $0.49 (-0.73%) from the previous day and down $11.22 (-14.50%) from the previous week [2]. - Product Spreads: Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.894708, up 0.51 (3.54%) from the previous day and 2.22 (17.52%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 17.691314, up 0.64 (3.75%) from the previous day and 2.72 (18.14%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Inventory Data - Sc Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts were 377.70 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and down 163.20 million barrels (-30.17%) from the previous week; Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 396.71 million barrels, with a 0.28 million - barrel increase (0.07%) [2]. - EIA US Data: Commercial crude oil was 442.35 million barrels, with a 2.55 million - barrel increase (0.58%); Cushing crude oil was 25.76 million barrels, with a 0.68 million - barrel increase (2.72%); gasoline was 235.98 million barrels, with a 1.60 million - barrel decrease (-0.67%); distillates were 111.08 million barrels, with a 3.54 million - barrel decrease (-3.09%) [2]. 3.3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 16.77 million contracts, with a 1.29 million - contract decrease (-7.13%); commercial net positions were - 17.67 million contracts, with a 1.34 million - contract increase (-7.06%); non - report net positions were 0.90 million contracts, with a 0.06 million - contract decrease (-5.79%) [2]. 3.4. Market News - From April 4th to the week of April 4th, EIA US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.553 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.681 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.544 million barrels [3]. - Iraq set the price of Basra Heavy crude oil for Asia in May at a discount of $2.90 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average price, and the price of Basra Medium crude oil at a premium of $0.25 per barrel [3]. - Trump suspended the comprehensive reciprocal tariff policy for 90 days for trade negotiations but retained a 10% benchmark tariff on all goods entering the US and continued to impose tariffs on specific industries [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 76.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.9% [4]. - JPMorgan predicts that the next Fed rate cut will be in September [5]. - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months but revised it to 45% after Trump's suspension announcement [5]. - EU member states voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US steel and aluminum tariffs [5]. - China's State Council Tariff Commission raised the tariff rate on US imports from 34% to 84% [6]. - US trade tariffs may have a greater impact on the eurozone economy than the ECB initially estimated, and may drag down inflation [6]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - The short - term market sentiment has reversed, but the medium - term strategy is to sell high. Aggressive investors can consider short - term short positions or buying put options [2].