申万期货品种策略日报：黑色-20250410

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Although the terminal demand shows signs of stabilization and the steel mills' profits are recovering, factors such as tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of demand continuation need to be considered [3]. - The iron ore market is also expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Despite the support from iron ore demand due to the potential increase in blast furnace restarts, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventories [3]. - The ferroalloy market may see stronger support below driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the peak season performance of terminal steel demand and the digestion of market inventories [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: Most futures contracts showed price changes. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan (-0.1%), the coke 05 contract decreased by 4 yuan (-0.2%), the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 13 yuan (-1.2%), and the coking coal 05 contract decreased by 9 yuan (-1.0%). Among steel products, the rebar 01 contract decreased by 28 yuan (-0.9%), and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased by 6 yuan (0.2%) [2]. - Ratio and Spread Changes: Some ratios and spreads changed. For instance, the coke inter - period (1 - 5 spread) increased from 104 to 107, and the coal - coke ratio (01 contract) increased from 1.52 to 1.54 [2]. Spot Market - Price Changes: In the coke spot market, prices remained stable. In the coking coal spot market, some prices remained unchanged, while the import Mongolian 3 (clean coal) at Shaheyi decreased from 1138 to 1132. In the steel product spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed slight decreases in some regions [2]. Profit - Profit Changes: The coke simulation profit decreased from 26 to - 399, the steel mill profit on the disk decreased slightly from - 50 to - 53, and the steel product simulation profit increased from 263 to 272 [3]. Macro News - The State Council Tariff Commission increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84 starting from 12:01 on April 10, and US President Trump authorized a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions [3]. Industry Information - As of April 8, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points [3].