黑色板块日报-20250410

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade wars have disrupted the market in recent days, dragging down black - series commodities. However, downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. The real - estate market in core cities is showing signs of recovery, while that in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. Trade wars also have a negative impact on the downstream consumption of plates. Technically, the futures prices are falling and may continue to decline [2]. - For iron ore, trade wars are a major market disturbance. Downstream demand in April may support futures prices. The supply is at a relatively high level, and port inventories have rebounded. Steel mill profitability is okay, and iron - water production is in a recovery trend but with limited room for further increase. Technically, the futures price has dropped significantly and may continue to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Situation: Tariff wars have affected the market. Downstream demand is in a peak period. Real - estate in core cities is recovering, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out. Trade wars impact plate consumption. Futures prices are falling [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Try short - selling on rebounds [2]. - Data Highlights: - Prices: The closing price of the threaded - rod main contract is 3088 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day and 2.46% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3208 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and down 5.14% from last week [2]. - Production: The national threaded - rod production of building - material steel mills is 228.65 tons, up 0.54% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 322.7 tons, down 0.63% from last week [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products is 1215.48 tons, down 3.04% from last week; the threaded - rod social inventory is 590.95 tons, down 3.06% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 301.09 tons, down 3.13% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Trade wars are the main market disturbance. Downstream demand in April may support prices. Supply is high, and port inventories have rebounded. Steel mill profitability is okay, and iron - water production is recovering but with limited growth space. Futures prices have dropped significantly [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down, and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. - Data Highlights: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract is 689 yuan/dry ton, down 0.58% from the previous day and 12.95% from last week [4]. - Supply: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1567.7 tons, down 12.81% from last week; Brazilian shipments are 657.8 tons, up 9.71% from last week [4]. - Inventory: The total port inventory is 14468.41 tons, down 0.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - The Bohai - Rim steam - coal price index closed at 678 yuan/ton yesterday, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous period. The coal - market supply - demand relationship has improved, with regional and calorific - value differentiations. The index hit its largest decline this year due to a significant drop in long - term contract prices [5]. - The 2024 Coal Industry Development Annual Report predicts that coal demand will see a slight increase in 2025. Electricity coal consumption will grow, while that in the steel and building - materials industries will decline slightly, and the chemical industry will have moderate growth [6].