宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250410

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of the current US tariff policy, market risk aversion has increased, risk assets have continued to weaken, and oil prices have remained in a downward trend [2]. - In the second quarter, Asian PX plants will undergo concentrated maintenance, leading to a significant decline in supply, with the intensity of maintenance to be observed. It is expected that the market will shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in the second quarter [2]. - Currently, cost is the most important influencing factor. Even if the fundamentals improve, it will be difficult to reverse the situation. The PX CFR China price on April 9 was $699 per ton. The escalation of the US tariff policy may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, causing a narrow decline in international oil prices and squeezing the cost side of PX [2]. - Amid the escalation of trade frictions, the market is filled with a strong sense of fear of price drops. Industry players are mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The sales of downstream polyester products are lackluster, and the PTA market continues to decline. Although the PTA social inventory is at a neutral to high level compared to historical periods, there has been a slight decrease in inventory in the past month, and it is expected to see inventory reduction from April to May [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 215 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The cost - pricing logic continues to operate, and it is difficult to break away from the follow - up logic in the short term [2]. - Due to the impact of the tariff policy, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On April 9, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $62.35 per barrel, up 4.65% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.48 per barrel, up 4.23%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $517.75 per ton, down 3.63%. The spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $619 per ton, down 4.11%. The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $699 per ton, down 2.92% [1]. - PTA: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,110 yuan per ton, down 4.33%; the settlement price was 4,144 yuan per ton, down 4.95%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,122 yuan per ton, down 3.96%; the settlement price was 4,156 yuan per ton, down 3.80%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,366 yuan per ton, down 4.07%. The CCFEI price index of purified terephthalic acid PTA for the domestic market was 4,150 yuan per ton, down 4.71%; the CCFEI price index for the external market on April 8 was $559.5 per ton, down 1.76%. The near - far month spread was 12 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan; the basis was 40 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan [1]. - PX: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 5,724 yuan per ton, down 4.22%; the settlement price was 5,796 yuan per ton, down 4.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%; the settlement price was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 5,781 yuan per ton, down 2.08%. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China was $700 per ton, down 2.91%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $675 per ton, down 3.02%. The PXN spread was $181.25 per ton, down 0.82%; the PX - MX spread was $80 per ton, up 7.38%. The basis was 57 yuan per ton, up 129 yuan [1]. - PR: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,378 yuan per ton, down 2.50%; the settlement price was 5,406 yuan per ton, down 2.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%; the settlement price was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69%; in the South China market, it was 5,450 yuan per ton, down 3.54%. The basis in the East China market was 42 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan; in the South China market, it was 72 yuan per ton, down 62 yuan [1]. - Downstream: On April 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 1.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.07%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,800 yuan per ton, down 2.16%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,750 yuan per ton, down 2.17%; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,230 yuan per ton, down 3.86%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 4.06%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69% [2]. Operating Conditions - On April 9, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.35%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 76.77%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester plants was 89.35%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle chip plants was 75.47%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.76%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On April 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 6 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 58%, up 14 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 44%, down 23 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in the South China are planned to undergo maintenance in the near future, which requires further attention [2].