期货市场交易指引-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Index futures are expected to oscillate; Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate upward [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - oscillate weakly; Coking coal and coke - oscillate [1][5][6] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper - consider moderately building long positions after market panic fully subsides; Aluminum - moderately go long at low prices; Nickel - suggest waiting or shorting on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - build long positions at low prices after sufficient price pull - back; Silver - range trading [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: PVC - oscillate; Soda ash - hold short positions in call options; Caustic soda - oscillate; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate [1][20][21] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate weakly; Apple - oscillate strongly; PTA - oscillate weakly [1][26][27] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs - oscillate weakly; Eggs - near - month contracts are strongly supported, far - month contracts are bearish on rallies; Corn - go long at low prices; Soybean meal - weak in the near - term, strong in the long - term; Oils and fats - weakly oscillate [1][30][32] 2. Core Views - The global market is affected by the US tariff policy, with high volatility and uncertainty. The tariff war between the US and other countries has a significant impact on various asset prices, and the subsequent game is still intense [5][11][18] - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some are affected by supply - side factors such as production capacity and inventory, while others are influenced by demand - side factors such as consumption and export [6][20][31] - The bond market is affected by factors such as the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the risk premium has not been fully priced, resulting in high volatility [5] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Index futures: Affected by the tariff war, although the offshore RMB has risen sharply, the game is still ongoing, and the index futures may oscillate [5] - Treasury bonds: Market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have risen and then fallen. The tariff game is volatile, and the bond market may show a two - way wide - range oscillation pattern [5] Black building materials - Rebar: The price is affected by tariff policies. Although direct exports to the US are small, indirect exports are impacted. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [6] - Iron ore: Supply is strong, and the growth of molten iron is expected to slow down. Affected by foreign tariff policies and domestic reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, but price upward resistance increases. The coke market is in a stalemate between policy negatives and industrial games, and price fluctuations intensify [8][9] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals are still resilient [11] - Aluminum: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [13] - Nickel: Affected by policies and supply - demand factors, the nickel price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait or conduct range trading [15][16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [17] - Gold and silver: Affected by the US tariff policy, the market has a strong expectation of economic recession, and the prices have pulled back. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient pull - backs [18][19] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The current situation is difficult to change. It mainly follows the market fluctuations and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20] - Caustic soda: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [21] - Rubber: The fundamental situation is weak, but affected by the suspension of tariffs and the rise of oil prices, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [22] - Urea: The supply is abundant, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is in the process of seasonal destocking. It is recommended for range trading [24][25] - Methanol: The supply is at a high level, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate widely [25][26] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [26] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton: The market consumption is not strong, but the acceptance of low prices is high, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [27] - Apple: The inventory is low, the sales are good, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, but macro risks need to be noted [27] - PTA: Although the supply - demand situation is good, the price is under pressure due to cost and consumption factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level [29] Agriculture and animal husbandry - Live pigs: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [30][31] - Eggs: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see for near - month contracts and be bearish on far - month contracts [32] - Corn: The short - term spot price has support, and the long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [33] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is affected by sentiment and supply - demand, and the long - term price is expected to rise. It is recommended to short near - term contracts on rallies and go long on the far - term contract [34][35] - Oils and fats: Affected by the US tariff policy and supply - demand factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and may first fall and then rise in the long term [36][38]