饲料养殖产业日报-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, but in the medium - to - long - term, due to increased supply and weak demand, the risk of price decline intensifies. Egg prices are under pressure in the short - term, and the supply will continue to increase in the long - term. For oils, they may rise slightly in the short - term and decline in the second quarter, then rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space, while the 09 contract is bullish. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, with limited upside space in the long - term [1][2][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 10, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. In April, the supply of live pigs increased, with the planned slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises up 3.25% month - on - month. The short - term price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, from April to September 2024, the supply will increase, and the price decline risk intensifies. The strategy is to sell short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - On April 10, the price in Shandong Dezhou was stable, while the price in Beijing increased. In April, the supply pressure is large, but the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter and the upward trend in the second half of the year may be hard to reverse. For the 05 contract, non - holders should be cautious about shorting, and the far - month contracts are under pressure [2]. Oils Palm Oil - On April 9, the Malaysian palm oil futures price fell. The export in March increased slightly, but the production increased more, and the inventory is expected to rise. The short - term price may rebound slightly, and the 06 contract should focus on the 4000 support level. In the long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. Soybean Oil - Although the US may increase biodiesel blending, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The short - term price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean oil price may be boosted in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. Rapeseed Oil - The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected. The domestic supply pressure is large in April, but the inventory may start to decline in May. In the long - term, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - Overall, domestic oils may rise slightly in the short - term, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil and palm oil. In the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to wait and see for the 09 contracts and focus on the spread - widening strategy of the 09 rapeseed - palm oil spread [8]. Soybean Meal - On April 9, the US soybean futures price rose. The short - term price of domestic soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space due to large supply from April to July. The 09 contract is bullish in the long - term. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing long for 05 and 07 contracts, and go long on the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On April 9, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, while the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased. The short - term price has support, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish on the overall trend, buy on dips for the 05 contract, and focus on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 positive spreads [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices and daily changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on different trading days [11].