镍与不锈钢日评：偏弱整理-20250410

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the frequent policy adjustments by the Indonesian government on the nickel industry are yet to be implemented, and the复产 of the Bisie mine in the eastern Congo (Kinshasa) is expected to ease the supply tightness in the second quarter. However, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, which exerts some pressure on nickel prices. Considering the slight relief of macro - sentiment, the decline rate of nickel prices may slow down [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material side provides limited support for stainless - steel prices. After the gradual release of macro - negative factors, the decline rate of stainless - steel prices may slow down [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Futures Market: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume was 260,036 lots (-1,707), and the open interest was 77,096 lots (-3,129). LME nickel rose 1.69%. The spot market trading activity was average, and the basis premium shrank [1]. - Supply Side: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. Some main production areas in Indonesia adjusted production, with reduced production schedules and a downward adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic refineries continued to incur losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - Demand Side: Ternary production schedules decreased; stainless - steel mills' production schedules were stable and improving; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Market: The previous trading day's stainless - steel main contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 152,297 lots (-35,634), and the open interest was 66,977 lots (-5,573). The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium shrank [1]. - Supply Side: Stainless - steel production schedules decreased slightly [1]. - Demand Side: Terminal demand gradually recovered [1]. - Cost Side: The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons (-6,300) [1]. Other Information - On April 8, LME nickel inventory was 202,900 tons, an increase of 630 tons (0.31%) from the previous day. In the recent week, it increased by 3,918 tons (1.97%), and in the recent month, it increased by 4,416 tons (2.22%) [1]. - On April 8, the long - position holdings of the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai nickel (total of all - month contracts) were 103,400 lots, and the short - position holdings were 113,900 lots, with a long - to - short ratio of 0.99. The net position was - 527 lots, an increase of 4,283 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - Alphamin Resources announced that its Bisie tin mine in eastern Congo (Kinshasa) would resume operation. Bisie is the world's third - largest tin mine, with a 2024 production of 17,323 tons of metallic tin. Benefiting from the Mpama South expansion project completed last year, the company originally planned to increase its annual production to 20,000 tons in 2025 [1].