资产配置海外双周报2025年第1期：关于美国新一轮关税冲击的十个问题-20250410

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]