铅锌日评：或有反弹-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For lead, the fundamentals show that primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with increased output in March, but there may be a decline in April in Henan due to maintenance. The recycled lead market faces a shortage of waste batteries, and the overall price is still firm. The demand side is in the off - season, with limited support for lead prices. However, due to the US tariff policy change, lead prices may rebound, and short - term unilateral operations are recommended [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals indicate that smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, leading to an obvious upward trend in production. The demand side has different performances in different sectors. Recently, non - ferrous metals mainly follow macro - sentiment fluctuations. After the change in the US tariff policy, zinc prices may have a small rebound, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,450 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,410 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 0.21%. The沪伦铅价比值 was 8.80, down 0.57% [1]. - The沪铅基差 was 40 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 28.66 dollars/ton, down 0.10 dollars. The沪铅近月 - 沪铅连一 was - 45 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 54,274 hands, up 10.24%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 41,816 hands, down 2.12%. The成交持仓 ratio was 1.30, up 12.62%. The LME inventory was 235,600 tons, unchanged. The沪铅仓单库存 was 60,841 tons, down 1.37% [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,130 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. The期货主力合约收盘价 was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.64%. The LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 2,620 dollars/ton, up 2.22%. The沪伦锌价比值 was 8.37, down 3.78% [1]. - The沪锌基差 was 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 3.00 dollars/ton, up 8.61 dollars. The沪锌近月 - 沪锌连一 was 290 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 235,271 hands, down 9.67%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 75,249 hands, down 5.55%. The成交持仓 ratio was 3.13, down 4.37%. The LME inventory was 123,150 tons, unchanged. The沪锌仓单库存 was 7,606 tons, down 12.13% [1]. 3.3 Lead - related News - A newly - built large - scale recycled lead smelter in East China may start production between August and September this year as some equipment is still to be installed [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 29.16 dollars/ton, and the position was 153,812 hands, down 1,305 hands [1]. 3.4 Zinc - related News - Ivanhoe Mines announced that in Q1 2025, the Kipushi concentrator processed a record 151,000 tons of ore with an average feed grade of 32.5%, producing 43,000 tons of zinc in concentrate with a zinc grade of over 53%. The concentrator will continue to increase production in Q2 and is expected to complete the expansion plan by the end of Q3 2025 to reach an annual zinc production of 250,000 tons [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 12.15 dollars/ton, and the position was 218,013 hands, down 7,601 hands [1].