新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-10）-20250410

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Fluctuation [4] - CSI 1000: Fluctuation [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Correction [4] - Silver: Correction [4] - Soybean oil: Fluctuation [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Fluctuation with a bearish bias [6] - Pulp: Weak fluctuation [8] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Buy on dips [8] - Plastic: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [8] - PP: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] - PVC: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff policy has disrupted the market, causing increased volatility in commodities. The US has imposed a 104% tariff on China, leading to a short-term bearish sentiment. The export order index of China's manufacturing industry in March continued to rise but remained in the contraction range, which will restrict the export of steel products and downstream products and drag down raw material demand [2]. - The geopolitical situation and high-interest rate environment are changing the pricing mechanism of gold. The global central bank's gold purchases are the key factor, reflecting the "decentralization" and hedging demand. Although the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's hedging demand remains strong [4]. - The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but some institutions have lowered the forecast for Brazil's soybean production. The increase in soybean imports in China in April may ease the tight supply situation. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. It is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is in a loose state. The profitability of steel enterprises has improved, and the daily average pig iron output has increased slightly. However, the export demand is weak. The iron ore price is affected by the macro - expectation and the reality. Conservative investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore, and the 09 contract can be used as a long - term short allocation [2]. - Coking coal and coke: China has increased the tariff on imported coking coal from the US. The import of coking coal from the US is expected to decrease, and imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia will increase to replace it. The coke supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure has increased. The coking coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. - Rebar: The mutual tariff increase is bearish for the black industry. Although there may be positive stimuli in China, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. The production and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. It is expected that the production will gradually increase in April [2]. - Glass: The production and sales in Shahe have declined significantly. The production has increased slightly from a low level, and the production profit has shrunk. The demand in the glass industry is seasonally increasing, and inventory reduction in April is expected. The short - term tariff policy is bearish for the market [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a peripheral community with a shared future. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rate on US - imported goods. The external market has stabilized, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased, and the market funds are stable. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net回笼 was 11.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the Treasury bond price will rise [4]. - Precious metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Although the geopolitical risk has decreased, Trump's tariff policy has increased the market's hedging demand. The physical gold demand in China has increased significantly. The short - term trade war and inflation expectations support the gold price [4]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle. The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to rise for the first time in six months. The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but the tariff policy may affect the trade pattern. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and it is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Meals: China's counter - tariff on US goods may lead to a decline in US soybean exports. However, the US bio - energy policy and the reduction in planting area support the demand for US soybean crushing. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans will occupy the Chinese market. It is expected that the tight supply of soybean meal will ease in the later stage [6]. Other Commodities - Rubber: The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the import arrival has increased the inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by the tariff dispute. The demand side shows signs of further weakening, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will show a weak - fluctuation trend in the short term [6]. - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline. The external price of pulp provides cost support, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate weakly [8]. - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that the logs will mainly fluctuate [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR: The US suspension of taxation on some countries supports the short - term rebound of oil prices. The load of domestic PX has continued to decline, and the PTA load has fluctuated. The raw materials of PTA have temporarily stopped falling, and the supply and demand of PTA are not bad in the short term. The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The polyester load has rebounded. It is expected that these products will follow the oil price fluctuations [8]. - PF: The oil price has rebounded, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. It is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will narrow - range consolidate in the near future [8]. - Plastic, PP, PVC: The cost of plastic and PP is affected by the rise in oil prices. The supply of plastic is under pressure, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price of PP is affected by the cancellation of some tariffs and the rise in oil prices. The cost of PVC is stable, the upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the short - term inventory has decreased. It is expected that these products will fluctuate with a bullish bias [8][10].