宏观偏弱运行，聚烯烃延续走低

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of tariffs, the domestic and international macro - environment is operating weakly, and the prices of polyolefins continue to decline. With the continuous commissioning of new domestic polyolefin plants and the arrival of the maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants, the overall supply of polyolefins is acceptable. The downstream start - up of PE is seasonally rising, while that of PP is increasing, and the inventory pressure of polyolefin producers is acceptable with overall inventory destocking. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side trade, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate is 82.5% (+0.2%), and the oil - based production profit is 951.8 yuan/ton (+69.7). For PP, the operating rate is 76.4% (+0.0%), the oil - based production profit is 331.8 yuan/ton (+69.7), and the PDH - based production profit is - 45.6 yuan/ton (-118.0). Relevant figures include those showing LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [1][20][23] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures in this section cover HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China [27][34][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 514.6 yuan/ton (-49.8), PP import profit is - 408.8 yuan/ton (-28.0), and PP export profit is 78.2 US dollars/ton (+3.4). Relevant figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR [1][44][55] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 40.6% (-0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.8% (-1.3%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate is 47.6% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.8% (+0.3%). Figures include those showing PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag operating rate, PP downstream BOPP operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [1][59][73] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions various types of polyolefin inventory, and relevant figures include PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [75][78][83]