研究所晨会观点精萃-20250410

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on most economies after 13 hours of implementation, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, which significantly boosted global risk appetite. In China, measures such as increasing ETF and related stock holdings, and stock repurchases by listed companies, along with potential new incremental policies, supported the domestic market's risk appetite [3]. - For different asset classes, short - term strategies include cautious long - positions for stocks, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical products; cautious short - term holding for black metals; and cautious short - term observation for black metals [3]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - Stock Index: Supported by sectors like military, port shipping, and software development, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. Despite short - term market volatility due to Sino - US tariff disputes, domestic measures and potential policies provided support. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3][4]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term, they are expected to oscillate and rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. - Commodity Sector: Black metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with cautious observation recommended; non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and precious metals are expected to rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market significantly recovered. COMEX gold rose over 3% to around 3100, and Shanghai gold rebounded to around 740. Although the global trade tension has eased, gold still has allocation value as a hedge against instability. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis provide upward momentum for gold [4][5]. Black Metals - Steel: On Wednesday, domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline, but trading volume increased. While real - world demand is marginally improving, there are concerns about demand peaking. Supply is expected to increase further. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [6]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to weaken. Although iron - water production is expected to rise, there are concerns about demand decline in the future. Supply is expected to decrease. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese continued to decline. While short - term demand is still acceptable, supply is decreasing. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemical - Crude Oil: Trump announced a suspension of high - tariff policies on some trading partners, but the impact of China's tariff increase remains. Oil prices are expected to be highly volatile in the near term [9]. - Asphalt: Driven by crude oil prices, the spot price has weakened. Although the inventory situation has slightly improved, actual demand is still weak. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. - PX: PX prices are oscillating at a low level. In addition to monitoring crude oil prices, attention should be paid to overseas oil - blending demand. Prices are expected to remain low this week [10]. - PTA: US terminal orders are stagnant, and downstream production and sales are extremely sluggish. PTA is expected to slightly rebound with the rise of crude oil prices [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: Shipping volume is at a very low level, and inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11]. - Short - fiber: Driven by oil prices, short - fiber prices have significantly declined. Although there is some price support, it is expected to remain weakly trending in the short term [11]. - Methanol: The methanol market in Taicang is weakly declining. Near - month contracts are supported by inventory decline, while far - month contracts are weaker. In the short term, there may be concentrated selling due to risk aversion, but there is still some support from inventory reduction in the medium - term [12]. - PP: The domestic PP market continued to decline. With new upstream device launches and weak downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - LLDPE: The PE market price continued to fall. Supply is relatively loose, and demand growth has slowed. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After the US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries, LME copper rebounded significantly. However, due to Trump's inconsistent policies and trade - war pressures, the rebound height is limited [14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices have fallen sharply and are in an oversold state. The impact of tariffs has weakened. The fundamentals are stable, but the market is mainly driven by macro factors. A rebound is approaching [14]. - Tin: After a sharp decline, tin prices rebounded due to the US tariff suspension. However, considering the potential supply increase and macro risks, the rebound height is limited [15]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT soybeans continued to rise slightly overnight. The market's focus is shifting to the April USDA report and spring - sowing conditions. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant [16]. - Soybean Meal: With the arrival of South American soybeans, domestic soybean supply is stable. The spot basis is expected to weaken, while futures are affected by import - cost increases and supply - chain concerns. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean export prices and US new - season sowing [16]. - Oils and Fats: International energy and oil prices rebounded, and domestic oil prices were stable overnight. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report, as analysts expect palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase by 3% to 1.56 million tons at the end of March [17][18]. - Corn: The upper limit of the current price range is pressured by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premiums, and policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the spot selling pressure at the end of the month [18]. - Hogs: The spot market is in a range - bound situation. There is still significant pressure on hog slaughter in April - May. With an expected increase in planned slaughter in April, rising feed costs, and completed reserve - inventory rotation, the upward drive for hog prices in April is weak [18].