复盘2016年10月：债市再次处于交易窗口期

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently in a trading window, and the upward trend of bond yields is expected to continue. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to return above 2.5% in 2025 [5][6] Summary by Related Content Comparison of Two Rounds of Bond Market Trends - The bond market bull market from 2014 - 2016 is similar to that from 2021 - 2024. There are also similarities in specific stages such as yield changes, policy impacts, and external shocks [3] - In 2016, real - estate regulation led to a rapid decline in long - bond yields, and currently, the "equivalent tariff" in the US may cause a decline in yields if it impacts exports [3][4] Impact of Tariffs on the Economy and Bond Market - Tariffs may not change the economic and bond market trends. The overall trend of domestic aggregate demand may continue the upward trend since Q4 2024, and the GDP year - on - year in Q2 2025 may be higher than that in Q1 [5] Central Bank's Attitude towards the Bond Market - The current 10 - year Treasury bond yield implies a 25BP - 55BP interest - rate cut expectation. If the central bank's interest - rate cut is less than 20BP, it may not be beneficial to the bond market [6] - Even if the central bank cuts interest rates, the capital interest rate may not decline. The central bank's attitude towards the bond market remains macro - prudential, and the current tariff shock is similar to the real - estate regulation in October 2016, not changing the upward trend of bond yields [6]