Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to approximately 4.5% in two trading days, despite weakening economic fundamentals[1] - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects tightening liquidity and/or rising risk premiums rather than economic fundamentals[2] - The U.S. recession risk is increasing, leading to more interest rate cut expectations being priced into short-term Treasuries[2] Group 2: Capital Flows and Trade Policies - Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are expected to reduce capital account surpluses, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. and selling of dollar assets[3] - The U.S. budget resolution passed in February plans to increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, with an average deficit rate of 5.7%[3] - The net issuance of U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting upward pressure on Treasury yields[3] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Global Trends - The goal of being a financial and manufacturing powerhouse may be incompatible, as tariffs could distort prices and increase global inefficiencies[3] - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is anticipated, with increased demand for non-dollar safe-haven assets like gold[5] - The volatility of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase due to the conflicting impacts of capital flows and economic fundamentals[4]
宏观视角:论美债利率无序上升的必然性
HTSC·2025-04-10 03:33