贸易摩擦升级，市场波动加大

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The continuous escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy have led to increased market volatility, affecting the prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp [2][8] - The global cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with the expected reduction in US cotton planting area in the new season and high domestic industrial and commercial inventories. The downstream demand has improved in March but is expected to weaken after April [2] - The 24/25 sugar production season in the Northern Hemisphere is basically over. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term and follow the trend of raw sugar in the medium term [6][7] - The pulp price has been under pressure due to the impact of the tariff policy on the global trade environment, high global shipments, high domestic port inventories, and weak downstream demand [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract yesterday was 12,585 yuan/ton, a change of -250 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.95%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,283 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1698, a change of +208 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,464 yuan/ton, a change of -130 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1879, a change of +120 from the previous day [1] - In March, Brazil's cotton export volume was 239,000 tons, a decrease of 13.0% from the previous month (275,000 tons) and a decrease of 5.4% from the same period last year (253,000 tons). Turkey and Vietnam were the main export destinations, each accounting for 21% of the total export volume. Pakistan ranked third with a share of 20%, and there were also exports to Bangladesh (15%) [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and declined. The continuous escalation of the trade war and the high tariffs will have an obvious impact on China's textile and clothing exports, and the cotton price has hit new lows after the festival. Globally, the 24/25 cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the expectation of reduced planting in the new season of US cotton has increased. Domestically, the current industrial and commercial inventories of cotton are still at a high level, and the expected planting area in the new season is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance in March improved compared with the previous month but was still weak compared with the peak season. After April, the demand is expected to weaken [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The Sino-US trade war continues to escalate, and the macro risks caused by tariffs have not ended. The cotton price volatility has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract yesterday was 6,006 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.69%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,130 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 + 124, a change of +22 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 - 76, a change of -8 from the previous day [4] - As of April 7, 197 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had completed the sugar cane crushing process in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 10 compared with the same period last season. A total of 85.13 million tons of sugar cane were crushed, a decrease of 21.831 million tons or 20.41% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production was 8.064 million tons, a decrease of 2.894 million tons or 26.4% compared with the same period last year, and the sugar production rate was 9.47%, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the same period last year [5] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price weakened and consolidated. In the raw sugar market, the production in the Northern Hemisphere in the 24/25 season is basically over, and the news of the sugar production reduction in India has been basically reflected in the futures price. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. In the short term, the raw sugar inventory is at a low level, and the support below the raw sugar 05 contract is strong. In the medium term, the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil still exists, and the sugar price may still be under pressure. Domestically, the sugar production in this season continues to increase, but the short-term import of sugar is very limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the import of sugar is supplemented, and the medium-term trend is expected to follow the raw sugar [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. The general direction of the Zhengzhou sugar futures price follows the raw sugar, and attention should be paid to the weather and policy changes in Brazil [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract yesterday was 5,202 yuan/ton, a change of -240 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 4.41%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,420 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 978, a change of -112 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 108, a change of -132 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp continued to decline. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials was not high. The spot prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, and Northeast China decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, and some wood pulp traders in local areas suspended trading and waited and watched. The trading atmosphere in the imported hardwood pulp spot market was dull, and the spot prices of some grades in Northeast China, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of the imported chemimechanical pulp spot market changed little, and the spot price remained stable. The demand for the imported natural color pulp spot market was poor, and the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price dropped sharply and hit a new low. The "reciprocal tariff" policy has a negative impact on the global trade environment and the economic recovery and commodity prices. The short-term demand recovery in the European and American markets still faces pressure, which is negative for the pulp price. On the supply side, the US dollar quotation in the international market continues to rise, and the cost support is still strong. However, the global shipments are still at a high level, and the domestic pulp import volume increased significantly from January to February, and the arrival volume in March is also expected to be high. The domestic port inventory has remained at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival, which has continuously suppressed the market price. On the demand side, the demand in Europe has not improved significantly, and the wood pulp port inventory in Europe is still at a historical high. The peak season in the domestic downstream is not strong, and the paper mills' procurement is still mainly based on rigid demand. With the continuous decline of the pulp price, the paper mills' profits have improved slightly, but the terminal demand expectation is not optimistic, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods has not improved. After May, the industry will enter the traditional off-season, and the demand may continue to weaken [8] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the trade war continues to intensify, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [8]