Guoxin Securities·2025-04-10 06:15Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong willingness to boost domestic demand through policy measures, with signs of recovery observed in quality companies, suggesting an active investment strategy [3][4][12]. Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies managing to clear inventory risks early, which positions them favorably for growth [12][14]. - In Q1 2025, beer consumption showed positive growth, driven by the Spring Festival and a low inventory start for major brands, with national sales expected to increase [9][10][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-sensitivity beer stocks, such as China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, as well as strong individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6][14][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack market is characterized by significant differences in product performance, with strong sales in gift boxes during the Spring Festival and notable growth in konjac-based snacks [21][22]. - Leading snack companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [21][22]. - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2025 [29][26]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is anticipated to face a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, as upstream inventory is expected to clear, leading to improved market conditions [32][41]. - Policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to further stimulate dairy consumption, with significant government support for families [38][40]. - Investment focus should be on leading dairy companies that maintain high levels of investor returns, such as Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to stabilize their profit margins [41][45]. Group 4: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to show high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its market presence and product offerings [46][48]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of consumers favoring functional beverages, with projected growth rates for various beverage categories [48][49]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are effectively leveraging their distribution networks and product innovation to capture market share [46][48]. Group 5: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [51][57]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a significant number of restaurant closures indicating a need for efficiency improvements within the supply chain [57][58]. - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain sector may see profitability improvements as inventory levels normalize and demand stabilizes [58][59].